Rough Ways Made Smooth: A series of familiar essays on scientific subjects

by Richard A. Proctor

I believe it will be found on careful inquiry that the change for which forty years ago men sought a cause in vain, and for which at present they assign a perfectly inadequate cause, has had no real existence. The study of meteorological records gives no valid support to the theory of change. Nor is it difficult to understand how the idea that there has been a change has arisen from the changed conditions under which men in middle life, as compared with children, observe or feel the effects of milder weather. A child gives no heed to mild winters. They pass, like ordinary spring or autumn days, unnoted and unremembered. But a bitter winter, or even a spell of bitter weather such as is felt almost every year, is remembered. Even though it lasts but for a short time, it produces as much effect on the childish imagination as a long and bitter winter produces on the minds of grown folk. Looking back at the days of childhood, the middle-aged man or woman recalls what seems like a series of bitter winters, because recalling many occasions when, during what seemed a long time, the snow lay deep, the waters were frozen, and the outdoor air was shrewd and biting.

Before considering some of the remarkable winters which during the last century have been experienced in Great Britain and in Europe generally, I would discuss briefly the evidence on which I base the belief that the winter weather of Europe, and of Great Britain especially, has undergone no noteworthy change during the last century.

If there is any validity in the theory at present in vogue that our winters are milder now than they were forty or fifty years ago, and the theory in vogue as we have seen forty years ago that the winters then were milder than they had been forty or fifty years earlier, it is manifest that there ought to be a very remarkable contrast between our present winter weather and that which was commonly experienced eighty or ninety years since. Now, it so chances that we possess a record of the weather from 1768 to 1792, by a very competent observer—Gilbert White of Selborne—which serves to show what weather prevailed generally during that interval; while the same writer has described at length, in his own happy and effective manner, some of the winters which were specially remarkable for severity. Let us see whether the winters during the last third of the eighteenth century were so much more bitter or long-lasting than those now experienced as common ideas on the subject would suggest.

In 1768, the year began with a fortnight's frost and snow. The cold was very severe, as will presently be more particularly noted. Thereafter wet and rainy weather prevailed to the end of February. The winter of 1768-69 was marked throughout by alternations of rain and frost; thus from the middle of November to the end of 1768 there were 'alternate rains and frosts;' in January and February, 1769, the weather was 'frosty and rainy, with gleams of fine weather in the intervals; then to the middle of March, wind and rain.' The last half of November, 1769, was dry and frosty, December windy, with rain and intervals of frost, and the first fortnight very foggy; the first fortnight of January, 1770, frosty, but on the 14th and 15th all the snow melted and to the end of February mild hazy weather prevailed; March was frosty and bright. From the middle of October, 1770, to the end of the year, there were almost incessant rains; then severe frosts till the last week of January, 1771, after which rain and snow prevailed for a fortnight, followed by spring weather till the end of February. March and April were frosty. The spring of 1771 was so exceptionally severe in the Isle of Skye that it was called the Black Spring; in the south also it was severe. November, 1771, frost with intervals of fog and rain; December, mild and bright weather with hoar frosts; January and the first week of February, 1772, frost and snow; thence to the end of the first fortnight in March, frost, sleet, rain, and snow.

The winter of 1772-73 would fairly compare with the mildest in recent years, except for one fortnight of hard frost in February, 1773. For from the end of September to December 22 there were rain and mild weather—the first ice on December 23—but thence to the end of the month foggy weather. The first week in January, frost, but the rest of the month dark rainy weather; and after the fortnight of hard frost in February, misty showery weather to the end of the first week in March, and bright spring days till April.

There were four weeks of frost after the end of the first fortnight in November, 1773, then rain to the end of the year, and rain and frost alternately to the middle of March, 1774.

In 1774-1775 there seems to have been no winter at all worth mentioning. From August 24 to the end of the third week in November there was rain, with frequent intervals of sunny weather. Then to the end of December, dark dripping fogs. January, February, and the first half of March, 1775, rain almost every day; and to the end of the first week in April, cold winds, with showers of rain and snow.

The end of the year 1775 was rainy, with intervals of hoar frost and sunshine. Dark frosty weather prevailed during the first three weeks of January, 1776, with much snow. Afterwards foggy weather and hoar frost. The cold of January, 1776, was remarkable, and will presently be more fully described.

November and December, 1776, were dry and frosty, with some days of hard rain. Then to January 10, 1777, hard frost; to the 20th foggy with frequent showers; and to February 18, hard dry frost with snow, followed by heavy rains, with intervals of warm dry spring weather to the end of May.

The winter of 1777-78 was another which resembled closely enough those winters which many suppose to be peculiar to recent years. The autumn weather to October 12 had been remarkably fine and warm. From then to the end of the year, grey mild weather prevailed, with but little rain and still less frost. During the first thirteen days of January there was frost with a little snow; then rain to January 24, followed by six days of hard frost. After this, harsh foggy weather with rain prevailed till February 23; then five days of frost; a fortnight of dark harsh weather; and spring weather to the end of the first fortnight in April. The second fortnight of April, however, was cold, with snow and frost.