PART III.
SECT. I.
Abstract of the Exports from and Imports to Great-Britain from 1697 to 1773, with Remarks.
| Imports. | Exports. | Excess of Exports. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Medium | £. | £. | £. | |
| for Four Years ended at 1700 | 4.956,975 | 6.034,724 | 1.077,749 | or 10/56 of the exports. |
| For Five Years ended at 1710 | 5.321,717 | 6.713,246 | 1.391,529 | or 10/48 of the exports. |
| at 1715 | 5.304,343 | 7.401,946 | 2.097,603 | or 10/35 of the exports. |
| at 1725 | 6.628,279 | 9.663,527 | 3.035,248 | or 10/32 of the exports. |
| at 1735 | 7.470,454 | 11.855,226 | 4.384,772 | or 10/27 of the exports. |
| at 1745 | 7.363,079 | 11.922,982 | 4.559,903 | or 10/26 of the exports. |
| at 1750 | 7.429,739 | 12.877,129 | 5.447,390 | or 10/24 of the exports. |
| at 1755 | 8.264,834 | 13.406,530 | 5.141,696 | or 10/26 of the exports. |
| at 1760 | 8.877,144 | 14.253,377 | 5.376,233 | or 10/26 of the exports. |
| For Four Years ended at 1764 | 10.110,870 | 15.793,158 | 5.682,228 | or 10/28 of the exports. |
| For Nine Years ended at 1773 | 11.996,769 | 14.814,074 | 2.817,305 | or 10/53 of the exports. |
This Abstract has been formed from the accounts delivered annually to the House of Commons, and lately published by Sir Charles Whitworth.
In order to draw just inferences from it, the following particulars should be remembered.—First. The Exports in the Custom-House entries are, for reasons well-known, too high. This excess has, by some of the best judges, been reckoned at a million per ann.—Secondly. The Imports are too low, no smuggled commodities being included in them. This deficiency has been estimated at another million per ann. But, in order to be sure of keeping within bounds, I will take both at a million and a half per ann.—Thirdly. The interest of the national debt paid to foreigners; the money spent in foreign countries by English travellers; the bullion consumed in manufactures; and the wear of the current coin, cannot, perhaps, amount to much less than two millions per ann. I will, however, take them at no more than the annual sum which has been commonly supposed to be due to foreigners from our funds; or, a million and a half.—In order, therefore, to find the Grand Balance of Payment between Britain and the rest of the world since the last war, all these sums (making up Three Millions) must be deducted from the excess of the exports.—But, in order to find the same balance before the end of the last war, less must be deducted, in proportion as the national debt and the foreign trade were then less than they are now.
If the foregoing Abstract is examined with a due regard to this rule, it will be found that, from[114] 1710 to 1764, the Balance of Payment must have been in favour of Britain; and that consequently, there must have been, during that period, an influx of money into the kingdom.—It was this, together with the increase of our paper, that produced the rapid fall of interest which began a few years before the Accession. And it was this also that enabled us to bear the great expence of the two last wars, and the loss of those enormous sums which were sent out of the kingdom to pay foreign subsidies, and to support armies on the continent.
Before 1710 it appears to be doubtful, whether the excess of the exports was such as brought any money into the kingdom; but it seems certain, that it could not have been such as in any degree compensated that drain of the public cash, which was occasioned by the continental wars of King William and Queen Ann. In consequence of this, the quantity of specie in the kingdom must have been greatly diminished; and Dr. Davenant computes that in 1711 it was nine millions less than at the Revolution. Hence proceeded the high rate of interest; the unproductiveness of the taxes; and the difficulties which government met with in raising money during those two wars: And there is reason to believe, these difficulties would have been insurmountable, had not a substitute for specie been provided by the establishment of the Bank.
In the interval of peace between the two last wars, or from 1748 to 1755, the balance in favour of Britain was at the highest; and this contributed to raise the stocks[115] to such a price, as enabled government to reduce the interest of the public debts from 4 to 3 per cent.