The estimate for the peace establishment, including miscellaneous expences, amounted, in 1775, to 3.703,476l.—But the extraordinary expences, occasioned by the war with America, made it fall very short.—In 1774 it amounted to 3.784,452l. exclusive of 250,000l. raised by Exchequer Bills, towards defraying the expence of calling in the gold coin. And the medium for eleven years, from 1765, has been nearly 3.700,000l.—According to the accounts which I have collected, the expence of the peace establishment (including miscellaneous expences) was in 1765, 1766, and 1767, 3.540,000l. per ann.—In 1768, 1769, and 1770, it was 3.354,000l. per ann.—In 1771, 1772, 1773, 1774, and 1775, the average has been nearly four millions per ann. exclusive of the expence of calling in the coin.
The parliament votes for the sea service 4l. per month per man, including wages, wear and tear, victuals and ordnance. This allowance is insufficient, and falls short every year more or less, in proportion to the number of men voted. From hence, in a great measure, arises that annual increase of the navy debt, mentioned in the second article of the National Expenditure. This increase in 1772 and 1773 was 669,996l. or 335,000l. per ann. The number of men voted in those two years, was 20,000. I have supposed them reduced to 16,000, and the annual increase of the Navy Debt to be only 250,000l.—Add 100,000l. for the annual increase of the Civil List Debt, and the total will be 350,000l.
Soon after the publication of the preceding account in February last year, the Earl of Stair obliged the public with another account of the same kind, which brings out a conclusion much more unfavourable. According to this account, were lotteries abolished, and the land-tax at 3s. in the pound only, there would be a deficiency in the revenue, instead of such a surplus as I have stated. The following remarks will shew the reason of this difference.
The Earl of Stair has taken the annual produce of the Sinking Fund at 2.506,400l. being the average produce of EIGHT years ended at Lady day 1775.—I have taken it at 2.610,759l. being the average of FIVE years ended at Christmas 1775.—The neat produce of the land and malt taxes has been also taken near 50,000l. higher in my account; and I have besides admitted 50,000l. per ann. for casual supplies, which his Lordship has not charged.
The annual increase of the Navy Debt, Lord Stair states at 300,000l. and of the Civil List at 200,000l. I have stated the former at 250,000l. and the latter at 100,000l.—In order also to avoid, as much as possible, all exaggeration, I have thrown out the expence of the new coinage. Lord Stair has admitted it, and given an yearly expence derived from hence of 100,000l.—He has also taken the Peace Establishment for 1774, as a fair medium for common years of peace, because it was lower in that year than in the three years preceding 1775. I have taken the average of eleven years of peace, which is 75,000l. less.
In consequence of these differences, the national PEACE expenditure in Lord Stair’s account comes out 325,000l. per ann. higher than in mine; and the national income comes out 204,359l. lower; from whence it follows, that without lotteries, and the land being at 3s. in the pound, the kingdom must, according to his Lordship’s calculation, run out at the rate of about 200,000l. every year.
In some of the particulars I have mentioned, this account is probably nearest to the truth; but, I hope, it will be considered, that I have studied to give moderate accounts, and aimed at erring always rather on the favourable than the unfavourable side.
Second Method of deducing the Surplus of the Revenue.
From the year 1763 to the year 1775, or during a period of 12 years, 10.639,793l. of the public[129] debt was paid off.—The money employed for this purpose must have been derived from the surplus of the ordinary revenue, added to the extraordinary receipts. These receipts have consisted of the following articles.—1st. The land-tax at 4s. in the pound in 1764, 1765, 1766, and 1771; or 1s. in the pound extraordinary for four years, making 1.750,000l.—2. The profits of ten lotteries[130] making (at 150,000l. each lottery) 1.500,000l.—3. A contribution of 400,000l. per ann. for five years from the East India Company, making 2.000,000l.—4. Savings by debts discharged at a discount,[131] making at least 400,000l.—5. Paid by the Bank in 1764 for the renewal of their charter, 110,000l.—6. Savings on high grants during the war; produce of French prizes taken before the declaration of war; sale of lands in the ceded islands; and composition for maintaining French prisoners,[132] making 2.520,000l.—All these sums amount to 8.280,000l. There remains to make up 10.639,793l. (the whole debt discharged) 2.359,793l. and this, therefore, is the amount of the whole surplus of the ordinary revenue for twelve years; or 196,000l. per ann.[133]