What resources were now at our disposal to determine what kind of weather was expected? First were the telegrams from the stations in the neighborhood, indicating the kind of weather which was approaching. This system is commonly used by all meteorological institutions which have something to do with weather reports, and it was therefore only natural that this should be made use of for the polar flight. One can, however, know beforehand that to make weather forecasts at Spitzbergen is much more difficult than at other places where it has been tried before. For instance, Southern Europe is covered by a network of telegraph stations which can report the approaching weather. But in Spitzbergen it is not so easy. The network of European stations certainly give reports of every condition approaching from the south, but no telegraphic weather reports can be obtained from the west, north, or east. There are, therefore, many situations where the meteorologists, notwithstanding all the aid, can give no reply to the question: “What will the weather be like to-morrow?”
And that is the case in Spitzbergen. But the polar flight had to be undertaken from there, and had to extend more than 1,000 kilometers above unknown regions in unknown weather conditions! How could any one guarantee good weather for the whole distance?
I know that many meteorologists would reply to such a question that this is beyond science. To prophesy what the weather will be like near the Pole is pure guesswork. As now and again stress has been put upon this view in the press, may I be permitted to defend the foolhardiness I showed by venturing to tackle this problem? I admit that it is very often quite impossible to say what the weather will be like on the way from Spitzbergen to the Pole, and still less possible to predict how it is likely to turn out in a day or two’s time. But meteorology allows us to determine by indirect conclusions whether the prospects of good weather are bright or whether the situation is too risky. That these weather forecasts are based on very weak foundations, and therefore can easily turn out wrong, was known by the airmen from the first hour. Still they preferred to follow the advice science could give, even if it was often vaguely formulated and given with all sorts of provisos.
The plan was not to risk a flight in any case through fog and thick snow, where the aeroplanes would certainly lose sight of each other, but to turn back if the weather should begin to look too threatening. It would then be the meteorologists’ problem to find another occasion when it would be again worth while to try and see whether in a renewed attempt the way to the Pole would be clear.
For several years the exchange of meteorological weather reports had been broadcast by wireless so that everybody who had a receiving apparatus could make free use of the same. “Fram’s” receiving apparatus was of the latest type and worked very well, even receiving meteorological messages from countries very far distant. Mr. Devoid attended to the receiving of nearly all the weather reports—a job he was well acquainted with, through his position as assistant at the Geophysical Institute at Tromsö. It can safely be said that we could not have got a better man for the handling of all the radio weather news which came to hand. He was untiring in trying to pick up and read communications which were very weak, coming from far distant stations, and it was, thanks to him, that the weather forecasting station at King’s Bay was able to work with nearly the same full range of meteorological observations as any southern weather forecasting station.
The meteorological despatches are broadcast by international agreement and, with one single apparatus, one can receive accounts of observations from the whole of Europe, North America and North Asia. That has been made possible by the various countries all having come to an agreement, in which they have arranged to send despatches following each other closely according to a prearranged time-table. On the “Fram” we regularly received the following despatches:
Observations from eight o’clock in the morning
| A.M. | |
| 4:30 | Stavanger (repetition of Annapolis U.S.A.) |
| 7:00 | London (English observations at 2 A.M.) |
| 8:12 | Tromsö (+ polar station Jan Mayen, Björnöya) |
| 8:20 | Königswusterhausen (Germany) |
| 8:25 | Haapsalu (Estland) |
| 8:35 | Lyngby (Denmark) |
| 8:40 | Karlsborg (Sweden) |
| 8:50 | Oslo (Norway) |
| 9:00 | London (England and Faroe Islands) |
| 9:15 | Grudziadz (Poland) |
| 9:20 | Paris (France, Switzerland, Belgium, Holland) |
| 9:30 | Sandhamn (Finland) |
| 9:35 | Budapest (Hungary) |
| 9:40 | London (ships’ observations) |
| 9:50 | London (collected messages) |
| 10:00 | Tromsö (collected messages) |
| 10:15 | Dietskoje Selo (Russia) |
| 10:30 | Vardo (North Russia) |
| 10:40 | Paris (collected messages) |
| 11:45 | Oslo (Norwegian observations 11 o’clock) |
| 11:50 | London (English observations 11 o’clock) |
| 12:00 | Dietskoje Selo (Russia and Siberia) |
Observations from two o’clock in the afternoon
| P.M. | |
| 2:12 | Tromsö (+ polar station Jan Mayen, Björnöya) |
| 2:20 | Königswusterhausen (Germany) |
| 2:35 | Lyngby (Denmark) |
| 2:40 | Karlsborg (Sweden) |
| 2:50 | Oslo (Norway) |
| 3:00 | London (England and Faroe Islands) |
| 3:15 | Grudziadz (Poland) |
| 3:20 | Paris (France, Switzerland, Belgium, Holland) |
| 3:30 | Sandhamn (Finland) |
| 3:50 | London (collected messages) |
| 4:00 | Tromsö (collected messages) |
| 5:00 | Paris (collected messages) |
| 5:45 | Oslo (Norwegian observations 5 o’clock) |
| 5:50 | London (English observations 5 o’clock) |
| 6:30 | Stavanger (repetition of Annapolis, U.S.A.) |