Time and Tide: A Romance of the Moon

by Robert S. Ball

I may recall the fundamental notion which every one has learned in mechanics, as to the difference between stable and unstable equilibrium. The conceivable possibility of making an egg stand on its end is a practical impossibility, because nature does not like unstable equilibrium, and a body departs therefrom on the least disturbance; on the other hand, stable equilibrium is the position in which nature tends to place everything. A log of wood floating on a river might conceivably float in a vertical position with its end up out of the water, but you never could succeed in so balancing it, because no matter how carefully you adjusted the log, it would almost instantly turn over when you left it free; on the other hand, when the log floats naturally on the water it assumes a horizontal position, to which, when momentarily displaced therefrom, it will return if permitted to do so. We have here an illustration of the contrast between stable and unstable equilibrium. It will be found generally that a body is in equilibrium when its centre of gravity is at its highest point or at its lowest point; there is, however, this important difference, that when the centre of gravity is highest the equilibrium is unstable, and when the centre of gravity is lowest the equilibrium is stable. The potential energy of an egg poised on its end in unstable equilibrium is greater than when it lies on its side in stable equilibrium. In fact, energy must be expended to raise the egg from the horizontal position to the vertical; while, on the other hand, work could conceivably be done by the egg when it passes from the vertical position to the horizontal. Speaking generally, we may say that the stable position indicates low energy, while a redundancy of that valuable agent is suggestive of instability.

We may apply similar principles to the consideration of the earth-moon system. It is true that we have here a series of dynamical phenomena, while the illustrations I have given of stable and unstable equilibrium relate only to statical problems; but we can have dynamical stability and dynamical instability, just as we can have stable and unstable equilibrium. Dynamical instability corresponds with the maximum of energy, and dynamical stability to the minimum of energy.

At that primitive epoch, when the energy of the earth-moon system was a maximum, the condition was one of dynamical instability; it was impossible that it should last. But now mark how truly critical an occurrence this must have been in the history of the earth-moon system, for have I not already explained that it is a necessary condition of the progress of tidal evolution that the energy of the system should be always declining? But here our retrospect has conducted us back to a most eventful crisis, in which the energy was a maximum, and therefore cannot have been immediately preceded by a state in which the energy was greater still; it is therefore impossible for the tidal evolution to have produced this state of things; some other influence must have been in operation at this beginning of the earth-moon system.

Thus there can be hardly a doubt that immediately preceding the critical epoch the moon originated from the earth in the way we have described. Note also that this condition, being one of maximum energy, was necessarily of dynamical instability, it could not last; the moon must adopt either of two courses—it must tumble back on the earth, or it must start outwards. Now which course was the moon to adopt? The case is analogous to that of an egg standing on its end—it will inevitably tumble one way or the other. Some infinitesimal cause will produce a tendency towards one side, and to that side accordingly the egg will fall. The earth-moon system was similarly in an unstable state, an infinitesimal cause might conceivably decide the fate of the system. We are necessarily in ignorance of what the determining cause might have been, but the effect it produced is perfectly clear; the moon did not again return to its mother earth, but set out on that mighty career which is in progress to-day.

Let it be noted that these critical epochs in the earth-moon history arise when and only when there is an absolute identity between the length of the month and the length of the day. It may be proper therefore that I should provide a demonstration of the fact, that the identity between these two periods must necessarily have occurred at a very early period in the evolution.

The law of Kepler, which asserts that the square of the periodic time is proportioned to the cube of the mean distance, is in its ordinary application confined to a comparison between the revolutions of the several planets about the sun. The periodic time of each planet is connected with its average distance by this law; but there is another application of Kepler's law which gives us information of the distance and the period of the moon in former stages of the earth-moon history. Although the actual path of the moon is of course an ellipse, yet that ellipse is troubled, as is well known, by many disturbing forces, and from this cause alone the actual path of the moon is far from being any of those simple curves with which we are so well acquainted. Even were the earth and the moon absolutely rigid particles, perturbations would work all sorts of small changes in the pliant curve. The phenomena of tidal evolution impart an additional element of complexity into the actual shape of the moon's path. We now see that the ellipse is not merely subject to incessant deflections of a periodic nature, it also undergoes a gradual contraction as we look back through time past; but we may, with all needful accuracy for our present purpose, think of the path of the moon as a circle, only we must attribute to that circle a continuous contraction of its radius the further and the further we look back. The alteration in the radius will be even so slow, that the moon will accomplish thousands of revolutions around the earth without any appreciable alteration in the average distance of the two bodies. We can therefore think of the moon as revolving at every epoch in a circle of special radius, and as accomplishing that revolution in a special time. With this understanding we can now apply Kepler's law to the several stages of the moon's past history. The periodic time of each revolution, and the mean distance at which that revolution was performed, will be always connected together by the formula of Kepler. Thus to take an instance in the very remote past. Let us suppose that the moon was at one hundred and twenty thousand miles instead of two hundred and forty thousand, that is, at half its present distance. Applying the law of Kepler, we see that the time of revolution must then have been only about ten days instead of the twenty-seven it is now. Still further, let us suppose that the moon revolves in an orbit with one-tenth of the diameter it has at present, then the cube of 10 being 1000, and the square root of 1000 being 31.6, it follows that the month must have been less than the thirty-first part of what it is at present, that is, it must have been considerably less than one of our present days. Thus you see the month is growing shorter and shorter the further we look back, the day is also growing shorter and shorter; but still I think we can show that there must have been a time when the month will have been at least as short as the day. For let us take the most extreme case in which the moon shall have made the closest possible approximation to the earth. Two globes in contact will have a distance between their centres which is equal to the sum of their radii. Take the earth as having a radius of four thousand miles, and the moon a radius of one thousand miles, the two centres must at their shortest distance be five thousand miles apart, that is, the moon must then be at the forty-eighth part of its present distance from the earth. Now the cube of 48 is 110,592, and the square root of 110,592 is nearly 333, therefore the length of the month will be one-three hundred and thirty-third part of the duration of the month at present; in other words, the moon must revolve around the earth in a period of somewhat about two hours. It seems impossible that the day can ever have been as brief as this. We have therefore proved that, in the course of its contracting duration, the moon must have overtaken the contracting day, and that therefore there must have been a time when the moon was in the vicinity of the earth, and having a day and month of equal period. Thus we have shown that the critical condition of dynamical instability must have occurred in the early period of the earth-moon history, if the agents then in operation were those which we now know. The further development of the subject must be postponed until the next lecture.

LECTURE II.

Starting from that fitting commencement of earth-moon history which the critical epoch affords, we shall now describe the dynamical phenomena as the tidal evolution progressed. The moon and the earth initially moved as a solid body, each bending the same face towards the other; but as the moon retreated, and as tides began to be raised on the earth, the length of the day began to increase, as did also the length of the month. We know, however, that the month increased more rapidly than the day, so that a time was reached when the month was twice as long as the day; and still both periods kept on increasing, but not at equal rates, for in progress of time the month grew so much more rapidly than the day, that many days had to elapse while the moon accomplished a single revolution. It is, however, only necessary for us to note those stages of the mighty progress which correspond to special events. The first of such stages was attained when the month assumed its maximum ratio to the day. At this time, the month was about twenty-nine days, and the epoch appears to have occurred at a comparatively recent date if we use such standards of time as tidal evolution requires; though measured by historical standards, the epoch is of incalculable antiquity. I cannot impress upon you too often the enormous magnitude of the period of time which these phenomena have required for their evolution. Professor Darwin's theory affords but little information on this point, and the utmost we can do is to assign a minor limit to the period through which tidal evolution has been in progress. It is certain that the birth of the moon must have occurred at least fifty million years ago, but probably the true period is enormously greater than this. If indeed we choose to add a cipher or two to the figure just printed, I do not think there is anything which could tell us that we have over-estimated the mark. Therefore, when I speak of the epoch in which the month possessed the greatest number of days as a recent one, it must be understood that I am merely speaking of events in relation to the order of tidal evolution. Viewed from this standpoint, we can show that the epoch is a recent one in the following manner. At present the month consists of a little more than twenty-seven days, but at this maximum period to which I have referred the month was about twenty-nine days; from that it began to decline, and the decline cannot have proceeded very far, for even still there are only two days less in the month than at the time when the month had the greatest number of days. It thus follows that the present epoch—the human epoch, as we may call it—in the history of the earth has fallen at a time when the progress of tidal evolution is about half-way between the initial and the final stage. I do not mean half-way in the sense of actual measurement of years; indeed, from this point it would seem that we cannot yet be nearly half-way, for, vast as are the periods of time that have elapsed since the moon first took its departure from the earth, they fall far short of that awful period of time which will intervene between the present moment and the hour when the next critical state of earth-moon history shall have been attained. In that state the day is destined once again to be equal to the month, just as was the case in the initial stage. The half-way stage will therefore in one sense be that in which the proportion of the month to the day culminates. This is the stage which we have but lately passed; and thus it is that at present we may be said to be almost half-way through the progress of tidal evolution.

My narrative of the earth-moon evolution must from this point forward cease to be retrospective. Having begun at that critical moment when the month and day were first equal, we have traced the progress of events to the present hour. What we have now to say is therefore a forecast of events yet to come. So far as we can tell, no agent is likely to interfere with the gradual evolution caused by the tides, which dynamical principles have disclosed to us. As the years roll on, or perhaps, I should rather say, as thousands of years and millions of years roll on, the day will continue to elongate, or the earth to rotate more slowly on its axis. But countless ages must elapse before another critical stage of the history shall be reached. It is needless for me to ponder over the tedious process by which this interesting epoch is reached. I shall rather sketch what the actual condition of our system will be when that moment shall have arrived. The day will then have expanded from the present familiar twenty-four hours up to a day more than twice, more than five, even more than fifty times its present duration. In round numbers, we may say that this great day will occupy one thousand four hundred of our ordinary hours. To realize the critical nature of the situation then arrived at, we must follow the corresponding evolution through which the moon passes. From its present distance of two hundred and forty thousand miles, the moon will describe an ever-enlarging orbit; and as it does so the duration of the month will also increase, until at last a point will be reached when the month has become more than double its present length, and has attained the particular value of one thousand four hundred hours. We are specially to observe that this one-thousand four-hundred-hour month will be exactly reached when the day has also expanded to one thousand four hundred hours; and the essence of this critical condition, which may be regarded as a significant point of tidal evolution, is that the day and the month have again become equal. The day and the month were equal at the beginning, the day and the month will be equal at the end. Yet how wide is the difference between the beginning and the end. The day or the month at the end is some hundreds of times as long as the month or the day at the beginning.

I have already fully explained how, in any stage of the evolutionary progress in which the day and the month became equal, the energy of the system attained a maximum or a minimum value. At the beginning the energy was a maximum; at the end the energy will be a minimum. The most important consequences follow from this consideration. I have already shown that a condition of maximum energy corresponded to dynamic instability. Thus we saw that the earth-moon history could not have commenced without the intervention of some influence other than tides at the beginning. Now let us learn what the similar doctrine has to tell us with regard to the end. The condition then arrived at is one of dynamical stability; for suppose that the system were to receive a slight alteration, by which the moon went out a little further, and thus described a larger orbit, and so performed more than its share of the moment of spin. Then the earth would have to do a little less spinning, because, under all circumstances, the total quantity of spin must be preserved unaltered. But the energy being at a minimum, such a small displacement must of course produce a state of things in which the energy would be increased. Or if we conceived the moon to come in towards the earth, the moon would then contribute less to the total moment of momentum. It would therefore be incumbent on the earth to do more; and accordingly the velocity of the earth's rotation would be augmented. But this arrangement also could only be produced by the addition of some fresh energy to the system, because the position from which the system is supposed to have been disturbed is one of minimum energy.