Such a Central European federation, developing as it must along the logical lines that lead into India and China would be the strongest single unit in the world, viewed from the standpoint of resources, of population, of productive power or of military strength. The only possible rivals to such a combination would be the widely scattered forces of the British Empire and the United States, separated from it by the stretches of the Atlantic Ocean. Against such a grouping Japan would be powerless because it would deprive her of the source of raw materials upon which she must rely for her economic development. Great Britain with her relatively small population and her rapidly diminishing resources could make no head against such a combination even with the assistance of her colonial empire. Northern India is as logical a home for Bolshevism as Central China or South-eastern Russia. Connect European Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Siberia, India and China with bonds that make effective coöperation possible and these countries—containing nearly two-thirds of the population of the world, and possessed of the resources necessary to maintain a modern civilization—could laugh at outside interference.
Two primary difficulties confront the organizers of the Federated Socialist Republics of Europe and Asia. One is nationality, language, custom and tradition, together with the ancient antagonisms which have been so carefully nurtured through the centuries. The other is the frightful economic disorganization prevalent throughout Central Europe,—a disorganization which would be increased rather than diminished by the establishment of new forms of economic life. Even if such an organization were perfected, it must remain, for a long time to come, on a defensive basis.
3. The Yellow Peril
The "yellow peril" thus far is little more than the Japanese menace to British and American trade in the Far East. The Japanese Archipelago is woefully deficient in coal, iron, petroleum, water power and agricultural land. The country is over-populated and must depend for its supplies of food and raw materials upon continental Asia. There seems to be no probability that Japan and China can make any effective working agreement in the near future that will constitute an active menace to the supremacy of the white race. Alone Japan is too weak in resources and too sparse in population. Combined with China she would be formidable, but her military policy in Korea and in the Shantung Province have made any effective coöperation with China at least temporarily impossible.
Furthermore, the Japanese are not seeking world conquest. On the contrary, they are bent upon maintaining their traditional aloofness by having a Monroe Doctrine for the East. This doctrine will be summed up in the phrase, "The East for the Easterners,"—the easterners being the Japanese. Such a policy would prove a serious menace to the trade of the United States and of Great Britain. It would prove still more of a hindrance to the investment of American and British capital in the very promising Eastern enterprises, and would close the door on the Western efforts to develop the immense industrial resources of China. The recent "Chinese Consortium," in which Japan joined with great reluctance, suggests that the major capitalist powers have refused to recognize the exclusive right of Japan to the economic advantages of the Far East. How seriously this situation will be taken by the United States and Great Britain depends in part upon the vigor with which Japan prosecutes her claims and in part upon the preoccupation of these two great powers with Bolshevism in Europe and with their own competitive activities in ship building, trade, finance and armament.
4. The British and the American Empires
The two remaining major forces in world economics and politics are the British Empire and the American Empire,—the mistress of the world, and her latest rival in the competition for world power. Between them, to-day, most of the world is divided. The British Empire includes the Near East, Southern Asia, Africa, Australia and half of North America. Dogging her are Germany, France, Russia and Italy, and, as she goes to the Far East,—Japan. The United States holds the Western Hemisphere, where she is supreme, with no enemy worthy the name.
The British power was shaken by the War of 1914. Never, in modern times, had the British themselves, been compelled to do so much of the actual fighting. The war debt and the disorganization of trade incident to the war period proved serious factors in the curtailment of British economic supremacy. At the same time, the territorial gains of the British were enormous, particularly in the Near East.
The Americans secured real advantages from the war. They grew immensely rich in profiteering during the first three years, they emerged with a relatively small debt, with no great loss of life, and with the greatest economic surpluses and the greatest immediate economic advantages possessed by any nation of the world.
The British Empire was the acknowledged mistress of the world in 1913. Her nearest rival (Germany) had one battleship to her two; one ton of merchant shipping to her three, and two dollars of foreign investments to her five. This rivalry was punished as the successive rivals of the British Empire have been punished for three hundred years.