A further problem of importance illustrated by our data for Bubal is the extent to which population estimates for villages were affected by local fugitivism or temporary scattering of the natives at the advent of the Spaniards. Very frequently the explorers left notations that the inhabitants of a certain rancheria had fled, or that many were absent. It seems clear that even by the year 1800 the natives were all too well aware of the purpose of the missionaries and soldiers and took measures to defeat that purpose. For this reason, remarkable as it may appear, the largest estimates are likely to have been the most accurate.
Returning now to the population of Bubal we find Martin counting "no less" than 200 children in 1804, indicating a total number somewhere in the vicinity of 1,300, although most of the adults apparently had absconded. In 1806 the same situation arose and Moraga found only 400 left in the village. In 1814 Cabot estimated that the village contained 700 people, despite the fact that some may have been missing. The apparent increase in 1814 can be very simply explained by the assumption that fewer natives had fled the village than had done so when Moraga arrived. Cabot's figure may be quite near the truth for the year 1814 since we must concede a drastic overall reduction of population in the area between 1804 and 1814. Certainly the population can never have been less than 700. The weight of the evidence at hand thus indicates that the estimate based upon Martin's account, i.e., 1,300 persons, is essentially sound.
Further evidence of collateral importance is derived from consideration of the location of the village of Bubal. Gifford and Schenck (1926, p. 27) place Bubal on Atwell's Island, near Alpaugh, in T23S, R23E, that is, on the east side of Lake Tulare. Neither Martin (in 1804) nor Moraga (Muñoz diary of 1806) locates the rancheria with any precision but Cabot (1815) left San Miguel on October 2, 1814, and on October 3 traveled over an immense plain, arriving late in the day at Bubal, on the shore of a big lake. This can have been only Lake Tulare and the west shore thereof. The next year Ortega (1815), approaching from the north or northwest, passed through Sumtache (i.e., Chunut) and went on to Bubal, where he arrived late at night, not having been able to find the village "... por haverse mudado de su sitio propio ..." Estudillo was the next visitor who has left us a detailed account of this area. On October 22, 1819, he went from near Cholam to a place called Los Alisos near the edge of the foothills of the coast range. On October 23 he went across the plain and on October 24 arrived at Bubal, obviously from the west, and found it deserted, adding the comment that the village "... manifesto aver ya dias q. se fueron a otra parte." The following day he pushed five leagues south through tule swamp and found the settlement on the bank of the lake although his soldiers had to wade waist deep for two leagues farther in order to catch most of the inhabitants. Apropos of this incident he says regarding Bubal: "Esta es la rancheria de gentiles mas immediata a las misiones, y la q. con mayor frecuencia se hacen cristianos en la de San Miguel."
From these accounts it is very clear that the original site of Bubal was on the west, not the east, shore of the lake and that because of the depredations of the Spaniards the inhabitants fled into the lake itself, where they made at least temporary settlements. That these became their permanent home is attested by the fact that no later than 1826 Pico stated that Bubal was situated on an island in the lake. Subsequently contemporary writers as well as the modern ethnographers agree that the principal village of the Wowol was on Atwell's Island.
From the demographic point of view the chief justification for tracing the migration of Bubal in the first two decades of the nineteenth century is to indicate how the constant pressure of the Spaniards, through incessant military expeditions, could affect the population. Through a series of years, their native village site having become untenable, the people of Bubal were forced to seek precarious and inadequate shelter where-ever they might find it in the depths of the tule swamps until ultimately they could establish themselves in a new home, an island fortress where they might remain relatively undisturbed. Starvation, casual massacre, and disease coupled with exposure must have strongly reduced the total number. Hence a 50 per cent decrease in ten or fifteen years—from Martin to Cabot and Estudillo—is not at all surprising.
The Chunut were first visited by Martin in 1804, who designated their principal rancheria Chuntache but gave no population figures. Two years later, in 1806, it was seen by Moraga, who called it Tunctache and said it had 250 people. Cabot in 1814 said there were 700 persons and Ortega in 1815 found 20 males. Estudillo in 1819 found 103 young braves ("indios gallardos mozos") and 200 women, old men, and children. However, he also states that the captain and "la mayor parte de la gente" were away on a visit toward Lake Buenavista.
The estimates of Cabot and Estudillo appear to be quite reliable. Cabot describes Bubal and then passes on to Suntache. The latter place he says had a population "about the same as the preceding," or 700 persons. Since Estudillo took the pains to count the young men precisely, his remaining estimate must be fairly correct. The total thus is 303 persons present plus more than the same number of absentees, or approximately 700.
Since the location and history of Tuntache was very similar to that of Bubal and since in the period 1815-1819 the population was nearly the same, it is very probable that there was a reduction in population at the former village analogous to that seen at the latter. Although we have no concrete data, such as Martin's report for Bubal in 1804, which may be applied to Tuntache, it may be assumed with safety that the aboriginal inhabitants of this rancheria numbered at least 1,200.
The third lake tribe was the Tachi. This tribe, or its principal village, was first recorded by Martin in 1804. He gives no direct figures but implies that there were 4,000 inhabitants, although he may have been referring to the entire lake area. The next visitor of consequence was Cabot in 1814 who stated that Tache "... segun presenta y por la caseria que la compone ..." had 1,000 souls. At a distance of two leagues he found another rancheria, Guchame, which may have belonged to the same tribe, which "... segun presenta y informes tomados no pasara de 200 almas ..." The next year Ortega attacked the rancheria but the people had been warned and had all fled when he entered. They had not returned, moreover, in 1819, when they were seen by Estudillo. They must have been in bad straits, because Estudillo found them living deep in the swamp, in a "gran Bolson de Tule, sin poder tener lumbre." Estudillo gives no figures but he makes the interesting comment that the Tachi had four chiefs and that the rancheria (or tribe) had several "parts," each at some distance from the others. This raises the question whether Cabot saw the only rancheria of the tribe or one of a number. The village he saw he examined sufficiently carefully to enable him to count the houses. Such an arrangement is incompatible with rancherias "each at some distance from the others." Furthermore four chiefs would imply four more or less equal subdivisions, or four rancherias and possibly 4,000 inhabitants. At first sight this appears preposterous. However, the following facts should be noted.
1. The area held by the tribe extended across the north and west shores of Lake Tulare from the present town of Lemoore to Coalinga close to the western foothills. This comprises a greater area than the Wowol and Chunut together.