If we accept tentatively 3,500 as the number of Indians on the middle Kings River in midcentury, then we are confronted with the problem of backward extrapolation. For the Tulare-Kaweah region the probable decline from 1800 to 1850 was probably to the level of approximately 20 per cent of the original value. Direct application of this factor to the Kings River gives a value for 1800 of 17,500. This is manifestly far too high. For the Mono and the Miwok in the upper foothills many facts point to a population decline to approximately 70 per cent of the prehistoric value. Application of this factor gives 5,000 for the Kings River, a high but not impossible figure.
Other considerations are worth mention at this point. In his diary of 1826 José Dolores Pico describes his adventures on the Kings River in January of that year. He was chasing stock thieves and trying to recover stolen animals. From January 10 to January 14 he beat back and forth along the Kings River, from the sloughs to the foothills, attacking every Indian in sight. The results were discouraging. He captured no animals, killed not over a score of natives, and was completely outmanoeuvered by the combined forces of the Wimilchi, the Notontos, and Chukamina. The entire tenor of the document suggests an active, competent, and quite powerful local confederacy of tribes. This diary of Pico describes the only expedition to the Kings River of which we have documentary knowledge between 1806 and the coming of the Americans.
These facts suggest, first, that there was a sizable population which managed to maintain itself reasonably well for several decades along the Kings River. Secondly, they suggest that there may perhaps have been a slow migration of the more exposed valley people, like the Nutunutu, higher up the river. Both these factors would tend to keep the population decline to a minimum.
In view of the confusion surrounding the evidence in this area and in view of the apparent inadequacy of the Moraga figures the aboriginal population of the middle Kings River may be set at 5,000, with the full realization that this value represents the best guess under the circumstances.
The upper river was inhabited by the Mono groups, Holkoma and Wobonuch, for which an 1850 population of 1,700 was computed. The decline to 70 per cent may be accepted here without serious reservation; hence the original number would have been 2,340. Adding the values for the three sectors of the river we get 9,130 or, estimating to the nearest hundred, 9,100.
KINGS RIVER ... 9,100
UPPER SAN JOAQUIN, FRESNO, AND CHOWCHILLA RIVERS AND MARIPOSA CREEK
The area between the Merced and the Kings rivers (see maps [1] and [4], area 5), which includes the courses of the upper San Joaquin, the Fresno, and the Chowchilla rivers, together with Mariposa Creek, is very poorly represented in the early documentary sources. The central valley itself, as far as the foothills, was apparently traversed by numerous expeditions and raids, and the population was largely missionized, killed, or dispersed. The written record is, however, quite inadequate. It is therefore not feasible to consider each of these river systems separately, as was done in the discussion of the population about 1850. It is preferable to discuss the entire region as a unit and, when necessary, pass to indirect methods of estimate.
The Pitkachi on the San Joaquin are mentioned in 1806 by Moraga, who allows 200 persons to their rancheria. The tribe appears again in the baptism record of Soledad Mission (MS in the Bancroft Library, Berkeley) according to which 205 Indians from "Picatche" were baptized from 1821 to 1824 and another 18 in 1831. An additional 23 came from rancherias in the vicinity, a total of 246. Another rancheria, Capicha, is referred to by Pico in 1815, who said it was uninhabited at that time, the inhabitants having fled to the mountains. As late as 1853 Wessels said that the Pitcache, together with the Noo-to-ah, a Mono group, numbered 500 to 600 souls. Kroeber mentions three villages remembered by modern informants.
If 246 Indians were baptized in one mission, the tribe as a whole must have numbered at least four times as many, or 1,000. If two fair-sized rancherias are mentioned by the Spanish observers, the entire tribe may well have possessed four or five, which again implies a population of 1,000. If there were approximately 300 survivors in 1853, by comparison with other open valley areas the original population must have been fully three or four times as great, or perhaps 1,200. If three rancherias were known to modern informants, they must formerly have been important places with anywhere from 200 to 400 people, again indicating a total of 1,000 for the tribe.