For conditions in the valley before 1840 we have to depend almost exclusively upon the historical records left by the Spanish and Mexicans. These consist of a series of diaries, reports, and letters, by both laymen and ecclesiastics, together with baptism lists and censuses from the coastal missions. This array of documents is to be found in the manuscript collections of the Bancroft Library of the University of California at Berkeley.
It will be clear from these considerations that the population of the San Joaquin Valley can be determined with some degree of accuracy at two stages in the history of the region. The later period is at the point of intense occupancy by the Americans, at or near the year 1850, for here may be brought to a focus the data from both contemporary counts and the research of modern ethnographers. The earlier is for the epoch just preceding the entrance of the Spanish into California, or just before 1770. To assess the population at this period it is necessary to bring to bear information from all sources, American and Spanish, and to utilize all indirect methods of computation which may be appropriate. As a matter of historical interest, as well as to provide a background for the estimate of aboriginal population, the state of the natives in the period of the Gold Rush will be first examined.
THE POPULATION OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
IN APPROXIMATELY 1850
CONTEMPORARY ESTIMATES AND COUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
General estimates for the population of the San Joaquin Valley during the period 1848 to 1855 were made by several individuals. James D. Savage, one of the earliest settlers in the Fresno region, stated in 1851 that the population from the Tuolumne River to the Kern River was from 50,000 to 55,000. Elsewhere he modified these figures considerably (Dixon, MS, 1875) and reported the total from the Cosumnes to the Kern as 18,100, of which 14,000 were from south of the Stanislaus River. James H. Carson, another pioneer, said in 1852 that "the Indians of the Tulare Valley number nearly 6,000. About half this number inhabit the mountains.... The other portion inhabit the plains along the rivers and lakes."
In 1852 the Indian commissioner, O. M. Wozencraft, estimated for the area lying between the Yuba and the Mokelumne rivers a total of 40,000 inhabitants. He quotes old residents as saying that four years previously (i.e., in 1848) the population for the same area had been 80,000. At about the same time another agent, Adam Johnston (1853), estimated all the Sierra and valley tribes as being 80,000 strong (including both Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys). In general magnitude these figures correspond to those given by Sutter for the region bounded by the Yuba, the Stanislaus, the Sacramento, the San Joaquin, and the line of the foothills: 21,873 (Sutter, 1850). Sutter's value definitely represents conditions prior to 1847. Meanwhile H. W. Wessels reported in 1853 that from the Stanislaus south there were 7,500 to 8,000 persons. In the same year G. W. Barbour, another commissioner, referred to the reservation Indians as "seven or eight thousand hungry souls." In 1856, agent T. J. Henly put the aggregate population of the Fresno and Kings River reservations plus Tulare, Mariposa, Tuolumne, Calaveras, and San Joaquin counties as 5,150 (Henley, 1857).
It is evident that the foregoing data represent two distinctly different types of estimate: broad generalization based largely upon subjective impression and applying to the years preceding 1847, and more narrow semi-estimate derived during the years subsequent to 1849 from some attempt to make an actual count. The figures obtained from the first method are certainly too high, particularly for the period centering around 1850. On the other hand, it may be possible that the other method yielded figures which were too low.
Some check on the reliability of the estimates supplied by the various commissioners and agents may be obtained from two sources, neither of which constituted a direct attempt to assess population. These comprise reports submitted concerning (1) vaccinations and (2) distribution of blankets.