Parents should procreate so many children only as they are in a position to maintain and educate in a suitable manner; it is obvious, therefore, that working-class families should be comparatively small. Yet to-day we see the exact opposite. Only among the well-to-do and the more intelligent sections of the population do we find that these principles are carried into effect. The tragic consequence is that the more prosperous and the comparatively intelligent procreate very few children, the very reverse of what is desirable. Rich people are in a position to have many children, and have but few; working-class parents, on the other hand, ought to have but few children, and they have a great many. If the weekly wage-earners were more prosperous and more intelligent, they would be in a position to have more children, but they would, in fact, have fewer in that case.
The Tendency of Evolution.—During the last quarter of the nineteenth century, a decline in the birth-rate set in in every civilised country in Europe, notwithstanding the fact that in all these countries the proletariat constitutes an ever-increasing proportion of the total population. The probable causes of this decline are: first, women’s dread of pregnancy, of childbirth, and of rearing children, and, secondly, pelvic contraction(?).
The death-rate is harder to control than the birth-rate. For the birth-rate is influenced to a far greater extent by factors which are under individual control; whereas, in the case of the death-rate, great natural forces are the chief determinants. Death comes to every one, whether his parents and other relatives desire it or not, but those only are born whose parents desire it. In this matter of the population problem, well-considered action will be directed where a result may be obtained with comparative ease. By this it is not meant to imply that the campaign against excessive mortality is to be altogether neglected; but rather that the campaign against an excessively high birth-rate demands more attention than it has hitherto received.
The tendency of evolution to-day is to effect a decline in the birth-rate. In the future far more attention will be paid, than has been paid in the past, to the demand of social hygiene that potential parents shall be careful to procreate healthy children only. On the other hand, the knowledge that will enable parents to prevent undesired conceptions will become more and more widely diffused. In times to come, an ever-increasing proportion of pregnancies will be deliberately willed.
The decline in the birth-rate will necessarily result in a decline in the death-rate, and more especially in a decline in the death-rate of infants and children. Ultimately, we shall see a decline, not merely in the birth-rate and the death-rate, but also in the difference between the total number of the births and of the deaths. It is beyond dispute that these figures are tending to become less variable and more constant than they were in former times.
[CHAPTER II]
STATISTICAL PROBLEMS OF POPULATION
Miscarriages, Premature Births, and Still-Births.—The statistical data regarding miscarriages, premature births, and still-births are somewhat untrustworthy. There is no general agreement as to the precise signification of these terms among the medical practitioners, coroners, and registrars of any one country—not to speak of differences in these matters in different countries; and this difficulty applies above all to the matter of still-births. In some countries, children dying during the act of birth or within a few hours after birth are regarded as born alive, but in others as still-born. When we are comparing the birth-rate and the death-rate in different countries, these causes of error must not be forgotten.
In the twentieth century, in the civilised countries of Europe, the premature births vary between 5 and 9 per cent., and the still-births between 3 and 4 per cent., of all births. For every 100 still-born girls there are approximately 130 still-born boys. Among the lower classes of the population, still-births are more frequent than among the upper classes. Within the same class, such births are more frequent among those living in unfavourable conditions than among those more favourably situated; and in manufacturing towns they are more frequent than in agricultural districts. The proportion is affected by the age of the mother, and still-births are at a minimum among mothers at ages from 20 to 25 years. In the course of time, notwithstanding the gigantic development of manufacturing industry, and in spite of the more accurate registration of still-births, the proportion of such births has diminished; the principal reason for this is the advance in medical science.