Marriage.—In the civilised countries of modern Europe the number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants of all ages is from 6 to 8; whilst for every 1000 inhabitants of a marriageable age the annual marriage rate is 50. Of 1000 men over 15 years of age from 400 to 700 are married, whilst of 1000 women over 15 years of age from 440 to 640 are married. A high marriage-rate is not per se either a favourable or an unfavourable manifestation; it is dependent upon economic conditions, and transient variations in the marriage-rate arise from the favourable or unfavourable economic conditions of the year in which these variations occur.
In consequence of the enormous development of the manufacturing industries, there has been a great increase in the numbers of those engaged in these industries; a large proportion of farm servants has been transformed into wage-earners of the towns. Since men of this latter class commonly marry young, whereas a comparatively small proportion of farm-servants marries, an increase in the marriage-rate has been noticeable during the latter half of the nineteenth century. But since the beginning of the present century a decline in the marriage-rate has become perceptible, and the causes of this decline are more difficult to ascertain. During the nineteenth century the divorce-rate underwent a continuous increase. The divorce-rate is higher in towns than in the country, and higher in thickly populated than in thinly populated countries.
Illegitimate Sexual Relations.—Except as regards the birth of illegitimate children, the only statistical data available regarding illegitimate sexual relations are those which have been obtained by private inquiries. The following are the most important statistics bearing on this question. The annual number of illegitimate births in Europe exceeds 600,000. In most European countries the illegitimate births constitute from 8 to 9 per cent. of the total births, and in every large country in Europe the illegitimate number several millions. From privately collected statistics we learn that in all civilised countries the great majority of unmarried mothers belong to the working classes and to the class of domestic servants; in many countries more than 80 per cent. of unmarried mothers may be thus classified. If from the number of illegitimate children we wish to deduce the probable number of unmarried mothers, we have always to bear in mind the fact that an unmarried mother commonly has one child only, whilst married women have on the average from three to four children. We learn from private statistics that of the fathers of illegitimate children not more than about 45 per cent. belong to the proletariat.
The relationship between the number of illegitimate births, on the one hand, and the number of legitimate births and the number of marriages, on the other, is, on one view, the following. The greater the number of marriages, the smaller will be the number of illegitimate births; the greater the average age at marriage, the greater also will be the number of illegitimate births. It is, indeed, extremely probable that a high marriage-rate leads to a low illegitimate birth-rate, and conversely; but we are not justified in regarding such a causal sequence as unquestionable. Variations in the marriage-rate and in the illegitimate birth-rate may be the joint consequences of other common factors.
[CHAPTER III]
CHILD MORTALITY
Statistical Data.—The statistics relating to child mortality are in an exceptionally well-developed state, and no unprejudiced student of sociology can afford to ignore them. The literature of child mortality contains a number of extremely important and thoroughly trustworthy works; the reason for this may be that, in comparison with other difficult problems of population, the study of questions of child mortality is easier, because various disturbing influences which complicate adult death-rates have no bearing upon child mortality.
Even simpler is the question of infant mortality.[1] In computations dealing with this matter it is not necessary to make use of the figures of the general census, for the calculations are based simply upon the recorded births and deaths. The calendar year in which the birth took place does not come directly into the question at all. What we record is the rate per thousand at which, in or during a particular year, say 1909, infants have died before attaining the end of the first year of their life; some of these will have been born in the year 1909, others, of course, in the year 1908.
Nearly 30 per cent. of all deaths are infant deaths; about 10 per cent. of all deaths are those of children of ages one to five years; about 50 per cent. of all deaths are those of children from birth to fifteen years. The least dangerous section of human life is between the ages of ten and fifteen years. Child mortality, extremely heavy during the year of infancy, diminishes greatly after the completion of the first year, and diminishes enormously after the completion of the fifth year. In the civilised countries of Europe, at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century, of every 1000 infants, from 100 to 300 die, on the average, every year. The attainable minimum of infant mortality, under conditions practically realisable to-day, may be regarded as about 70 per 1000. In families in which exceptionally favourable conditions prevail, the infant mortality rate is even lower than the figure just stated; in the families of the higher aristocracy and among the royal houses it is as low as one-half, and even as low as one-third, of this “practicable minimum” of 70 per 1000.