We may now simplify our ideas, and instead of the former combinations, make use of other expressions which may convey them.
Let us therefore say, that the fall or rise upon either side of the balance, is positive, or relative. Positive, when the side we talk of really augments beyond, or diminishes below the usual standard. Relative, when there is no alteration upon the side we speak of, and that the subversion of the balance is owing to an alteration on the other side. As for example:
Instead of saying demand diminishes, and work remains the same, let us say, demand diminishes positively, or work increases relatively; according as the subject may lead us to speak either of the one or of the other. This being premised,
If the scale of work shall preponderate positively, it should be inquired, whether the quantity furnished has really swelled, in all respects, beyond the proportion of the consumption, (in which case the statesman should diminish the number of hands, by throwing a part of them into a new channel) or whether the imprudence of the workmen has only made them produce their work unseasonably; in which case, proper information, and even assistance should be given them, to prevent merchants from taking the advantage of their want of experience: but these last precautions are necessary only in the infancy of industry.
If a statesman should be negligent on this occasion; if he should allow natural consequences to follow upon one another; just as circumstances shall determine; then it may happen, that workmen will keep upon hand that part of their goods which exceeds the demand, until necessity forces them to enter into competition with one another, and sell for what they can get. Now this competition is hurtful, because it is all on one side, and because we have supposed the preponderating of the scale of work to be an overturning of a perfect balance, which can by no means be set right, consistently with a scheme of thriving, but by the scale of demand becoming heavier, and re-establishing a double competition. Were this to happen before the workmen come to sell in competition, then the balance would again be even, after what I call a short vibration, which is no subversion; but when the scale of work remains too long in the same position, and occasions a strong, hurtful, and lasting competition, upon one side only, then, I say, the balance is overturned; because this diminishes the reasonable profits, or perhaps, indeed, obliges the workmen to sell below prime cost. The effect of this is, that the workmen fall into distress, and that industry suffers a discouragement; and this effect is certain.
But it may be asked, Whether, by this fall of prices, demand will not be increased? That is to say, will not the whole of the goods be sold off?
I answer, That this may, or may not, be the effect of the fall, according to circumstances: it is a contingent consequence of the simple, but not the effect of the double competition: the distress of the workmen is a certain and unavoidable consequence of the first.
But supposing this contingent consequence to happen, will it not set the balance even, by increasing the demand? I answer, the balance is then made even by a violent shock given to industry, but it is not set even from any principle which can support it, or make it flourish. Here is the criterion of a perfect balance: A positive moderate profit must balance a positive moderate profit; the balance must vibrate, and no loss must be found on either side. In the example before us, the balance stands even, it is true; the work and the demand are equally poised as to quantity; but it is a relative profit, which hangs in the scale, opposite to a relative loss. I wish this may be well understood; farther illustrations will make it clear.
Next, let me suppose the scale of demand to preponderate positively. In this case, the statesman should be still more upon his guard, to provide a proportional supply; because the danger here may at first put on a shew of profit, and deceive him.
The consequences of this subversion of the balance are either,