Great balance of trade against France, in September 1761.
The French silver here is less valuable in Holland than the gold: this is no proof that the proportion between the metals in the respective coins of these two nations is different (we shall soon find it to be very exactly the same); but this preference in favour of the French gold, is owing to the temporary demand for gold on account of the war; for which reason no French silver coin appears at present in Holland. I write in September 1761.
I must also observe, that at this time the course of louis d’ors is 11f. 4st. which is little or nothing above the real par of the metal they contain; which in peaceable times is not the case. This proves how strongly the balance of trade is against France with respect to Holland, as it has reduced her specie to the price of bullion: it is not so in Germany.
Low value of the pound sterling in Holland, in 1761.
The low value which a pound sterling has borne for these several years in exchange, and the great fall of its worth in Holland of late, when it has been at 10f. 10st. is no argument against the high conversion I have given it, to wit, above 11f. 12st. Were there nothing but silver coin in England, and were it all of standard weight, exchange would frequently run even above that value in peaceable times; because the silver coin in Holland is light, and I have reckoned it as if it were of full weight.
It will be observed, that the par upon the gold does not quite amount to 11f. 4st. the reason of which is the great disproportion in the British coin, between the intrinsic value of a pound sterling in silver, and in gold, when both are of standard weight; the latter being near 5 per cent. worse than the former, when the proportion of the metals is supposed to be at 14½. But at present there are no sterling pounds in silver money; there is no silver in England in any proportion to the circulation of trade; and therefore the only currency by which a pound can be valued, is the guinea.
Owing to the lightness of the gold coin in England at that time,
It has been said, and I think sufficiently proved, that the price of the metals in the market, shew very exactly the weight of the currency in nations where coinage is free, when there is no severe prohibition (put in execution) against the exportation of the coin. This I take to be the case in England. Now gold there has risen of late to 4l. 0s. 8d. per ounce; from which I conclude, that the guineas with which it is bought, or with which bank notes are paid, are at present so light, that 4l. 0s. 8d. of them do not weigh above an ounce, (the good guineas are exported) whereas an ounce of new guineas is worth no more than 3l. 17s. 10½d.
Gold, therefore, which now sells for 4l. 0s. 8d. would certainly be worth no more than 3l. 17s. 10½d. were English gold coin of its proper weight: and the price of it will come down to that value, in proportion as circumstances shall call back the heavy guineas.
To facilitate the verification of this point, I shall first observe, that the difference between 4l. 0s. 8d. and 3l. 17s. 10½d. is 4.57 per cent. The English gold currency, therefore, at the time standard bullion was worth 4l. 0s. 8d. must have been worn 4.57 per cent. Guineas, when of full weight, weigh 129.43 grains of troy weight; if such guineas are worn 4.57 per cent. they ought to weigh no more than 123.23 grains troy. Now let any man try the experiment, and put an old guinea, taken by chance (not picked out) into a scale, and see whether it has not been worn down to 123.23 grains; and let him also examine whether the greatest part of the guineas, at the time when gold bullion has got to so high a price, are not of King George I. and his predecessors: these I call old.