'I am told that Mr. Gladstone is much shaken by his late illness, and I cannot see how he can ever lead the House again, though his name will always be a tower of strength in the constituencies.'
But in December Mr. Chamberlain said that he did not think the prospects of a General Election were so good for Mr. Gladstone as they had been six months ago.
'James, dining at my house, had said a long time before this that the prospects of the Liberals might look rosy, but that they had not realized the extent to which the Liberal Unionists intended to spend their money upon Labour candidates;' and this danger 'began to show itself more clearly about this time.' On December 28th 'I had an amusing letter from Cyril Flower:
'"Surely for a real good muddle in political affairs, Welsh, Irish, Scotch, and English, there has never been a bigger, and what with Pamellites and anti-Parnellites (Christian and anti-Christian) Whigs, Labour candidates, Radicals, Tories, Jacobites, and Liberal Unionists, the next House will be as rum a kettle of fish as ever stewed since George III. The worst of it is, as the House gets more and more divided (like the French Chambers) into sets, it also becomes more and more incapable of getting through its business, and the littleness of the individual members becomes daily more apparent."'
The real difficulty for the Liberals was, however, the question of leadership; and Sir Charles wrote an article in the Speaker [Footnote: September 5th, 1891.] in support of one of his few paradoxes—that Great Britain would be better off without a Second Chamber, but that, given a House of Lords, the Prime Minister should be a member of it. For this reason he urged that though, 'when the moment has come for Mr. Gladstone to think that he has earned a change into the position of adviser from that of military chief, Sir William Harcourt will occupy the place he pleases to assume—he will be able to make himself Prime Minister if he chooses'—yet 'the party would be strongest with Mr. Gladstone for adviser, Sir William Harcourt, as fighting chief, sharing the responsibility with the leader in the Lords more fully than he would if he were Prime Minister in the Lower House'; and he named Lord Spencer as possible Prime Minister, since Lord Rosebery should be Foreign Secretary, and the Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister should not be the same man, 'so heavy is the work of each of these two offices.'
With the opening of 1892 Parliament entered on its sixth, and last, session, and 'on April 1st I received a letter from Chamberlain, in which he said:
'"My own firm conviction is that parties will be nearly divided, and
if Mr. G. has a majority nothing will be done either in regard to
Ireland or to social questions in Great Britain.
'"I do not expect the election till late in the autumn, and, judging from appearances, the Opposition are much divided and rather depressed in spirit. My prediction is that, unless the Gladstonians give up the idea of a separate Parliament (I do not say extended local government), they will not obtain power—though they may obtain office—for this generation.
'"This is a bold prophecy for you, but it is my sincere opinion."'
Right essentially—for there was a very small Liberal majority—Mr. Chamberlain was wrong on the point of date: the election came in July, 1892.