Returned
as
aged

1851.

1861.

1871.

Really older.

Age correct.

Really y’nger.

Really older.

Age correct

Really y’nger.

Really older.

Age correct.

Really y’nger.

0–5

. . .

1000

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

5–10

. . .

97.0

3.0

. . .

97.1

2.9

. . .

97.3

2.7

10–15

. . .

98.8

1.2

. . .

98.3

1.7

. . .

98.3

1.7

15–20

. . .

99.1

.9

. . .

98.3

1.7

. . .

98.2

1.8

20–25

1.0

98.7

.3

.9

98.4

.7

.5

98.6

.9

25–30

1.6

98.4

. . .

1.0

99.0

. . .

.6

99.4

. . .

30–35

.7

99.3

. . .

.1

99.9

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

35–40

.2

99.8

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

40–45

3.5

96.5

. . .

1.6

97.8

.6

1.0

98.3

.7

45–50

5.0

95.0

. . .

1.9

98.1

. . .

1.2

98.8

. . .

50–55

9.0

91.0

. . .

4.2

95.8

. . .

3.1

96.9

. . .

55–60

4.7

95.3

. . .

1.2

98.8

. . .

.6

99.4

. . .

60–65

7.2

92.8

. . .

4.9

95.1

. . .

4.1

95.9

. . .

65–70

.. .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

70–75

. . .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

. . .

100.0

. . .

75–80

. . .

97.3

2.7

. . .

97.9

2.1

. . .

98.8

1.2

80–85

. . .

88.9

11.1

. . .

91.2

8.8

. . .

94.8

5.2

85–90

. . .

87.3

12.7

. . .

89.4

10.6

. . .

94.9

5.1

90–95

. . .

86.3

13.7

. . .

88.6

11.4

. . .

93.7

6.3

95–100

.. .

57.0

43.0

. . .

59.9

40.1

. . .

74.4

25.6

100 & up.

. . .

25.6

74.4

. . .

36.4

63.6

. . .

41.5

58.5

The emigration [15] at several ages shewn in Table VI, though graduated with much regularity, is very different in amount at particular ages from that which has been computed on page [14] (ante), and each person must form his own opinion as to which set of figures is likely to be nearest the truth.

Applying the final test previously used, by calculating the ratios of survivors indicated by the corrected figures, we have:—

Age at the
end of the ten
years.

Proportion of survivors (including
emigrants) out of 100 males who were
living ten years earlier.

The like
proportion
according to the
English Life Table
No. 3.

According to
corrected figures,
1851 and 1861.

According to
corrected figures,
1861 and 1871.

10–15

87.1

87.0

86.4

15–20

94.3

94.8

94.2

20–25

93.7

94.1

93.7

25–30

92.0

92.0

92.0

30–35

91.4

91.1

90.9

35–40

90.6

89.8

89.9

40–45

89.3

88.3

88.6

45–50

87.4

86.4

86.8

50–55

84.9

84.3

84.3

55–60

81.0

80.2

80.5

60–65

76.6

75.1

75.3

65–70

68.8

66.5

67.7

70–75

57.7

56.3

56.9

75–80

42.9

40.8

43.5

These ratios, like those obtained from the corrected female population, shew a great deal of regularity, and resemble those derived from the English Life Table very closely, whilst they deviate widely from those based upon the uncorrected census figures.

It may perhaps be supposed that such resemblance is artificial, and is really the result of the adoption of the Life Table as a guide in the apportionment of the recorded deaths under the years of birth. I am, however, sure that such a use of the Life Table cannot have controlled the result to any very important extent. Any apportionment of deaths occurring amongst a gradually increasing population like that of England, effected on a consistent and reasonable plan, would necessarily come within a very few thousands of the figures shewn in Tables IV and VI, at least for that period of life extending over fifty years or thereabouts, which lies between childhood and old age. [16]

There is this further remark to be made, viz., that the series of ratios, though they resemble those derived from the Life Table, deviate from them at particular ages to a very appreciable extent thus:—

Males—Loss by death.

Females—Loss by death.

Age at end
of
decennium.

Life Table.

Corrected
Population,
1851/60.

Corrected
Population,
1861/70.

Life Table.

Corrected
Population,
1851/60.

Corrected
Population,
1861/70.

25–30

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.4

8.6

8.1

30–35

9.1

8.6

8.9

9.6

9.5

9.0

35–40

10.1

9.4

10.2

10.4

10.0

9.9

40–45

11.4

10.7

11.7

11.4

11.0

10.9

45–50

13.2

12.6

13.6

12.6

11.7

11.8

50–55

15.7

15.1

15.7

14.1

13.2

13.2

55–60

19.5

19.0

19.8

16.8

15.3

15.4

60–65

24.7

23.4

24.9

21.8

19.8

20.5

The actual mortality seems in general to be lower than that shewn in the Life Table, sometimes to the extent of five or six or even nine per cent. If, therefore, we were to compute the numbers of deaths on the basis of the Life Table, the result would be found to exceed the recorded deaths by many thousands. I naturally prefer to accept the teachings of the recorded facts, although they may not have been transposed quite correctly, rather than rely upon the Life Table,—which I feel sure has been graduated by some mathematical process at least as empirical as any estimate of mine. At the same time, I think I am bound to point out that so near a correspondence between the general character of my results and that of those obtained by mathematical graduation is a most important fact, tending to convince us more strongly than ever that great regularity would be found to exist in the age-distribution of deaths occurring amongst a large population, and during a moderately long period of time, if only a truthful record of ages could be secured.

Application of the suggested corrections.