It would be difficult to say, how much should be added, for the consumption of inhabitants of other descriptions; a great deal surely. But the present view shall be confined to the one description named. Seven millions of livres, are nine millions of days’ work, of those who raise, spin, and weave the wool and flax; and, at three hundred working days to the year, would maintain thirty thousand people. To introduce these simple manufactures, suppose government to give five per cent, on the value of what should be exported of them, for ten years to come: if none should be exported, nothing would be to be paid: but on the other hand, if the manufactures, with this encouragement, should rise to the full demand, it will be a sacrifice of three hundred and fifty-one thousand livres a year, for ten years only, to produce a perpetual subsistence for more than thirty thousand people (for the demand will grow with our population); while she must expend perpetually one million two hundred and eighty-five thousand livres a year, to maintain the three thousand five hundred and seventy seamen, who would supply her with whale-oil. That is to say, for each seaman, as much as for thirty laborers and manufacturers.
But to return to our subject, and to conclude.
Whether, then, we consider the Arrêt of September the 28th, in a political or a commercial light, it would seem, that the United States should be excepted from its operation. Still more so, when they invoke against it the amity subsisting between the two nations, the desire of binding them together by every possible interest and connection, the several acts in favor of this exception, the dignity of legislation, which admits not of changes backwards and forwards, the interests of commerce, which requires steady regulations, the assurances of the friendly motives which have led the King to pass these acts, and the hope, that no cause will arise, to change either his motives or his measures towards us.
LETTER CLXXI.—TO JOHN JAY, November 29, 1788
TO JOHN JAY.
Paris, November 29, 1788.
Sir,
In the hurry of making up my letter of the 19th instant, I omitted the enclosed printed paper, on the subject of whale-oil. That omission is now supplied by another conveyance, by the way of London. The explanatory Arrêt is not yet come out. I still take for granted, it will pass, though there be an opposition to it in the Council. In the mean time, orders are given to receive our oils which may arrive. The apprehension of a want of corn has induced them to turn their eyes to foreign supplies; and to show their preference of receiving them from us, they have passed the enclosed Arrêt, giving a premium on wheat and flour from the United States, for a limited time. This, you will doubtless think proper to have translated and published. The Notables are still in session: the votes of the separate bureaux have not yet been reduced to a joint act, in an assembly of the whole. I see no reason to suppose they will change the separate votes relative to the representation of the Tiers Etat in the States General. In the mean time, the stream of public indignation, heretofore directed against the court, sets strongly against the Notables. It is not yet decided when the States will meet: but certainly they cannot, till February or March. The Turks have retired across the Danube. This movement indicates their going into winter-quarters, and the severity of the weather must hasten it. The thermometer was yesterday at eight degrees of Fahrenheit, that is, twenty-four degrees below freezing; a degree of cold equal to that of the year 1740, which they count here among their coldest winters. This having continued many days, and being still likely to continue, and the wind from northeast, render it probable, that all enterprise must be suspended between the three great belligerent powers. Poland is likely to be thrown into great convulsions. The Empress of Russia has peremptorily demanded such aids from Poland, as might engage it in the war. The King of Prussia, on the other hand, threatens to march an army on their borders. The vote of the Polish confederacy for one hundred thousand men, was a coalition of the two parties, in that single act only. The party opposed to the King, have obtained a majority, and have voted that this army shall be independent of him. They are supported by Prussia, while the King depends on Russia. Authentic information from England leaves not a doubt, that the King is lunatic; and that, instead of the effect, is the cause of the illness, under which he has been so near dying. I mention this, because the English newspapers, speaking by guess on that as they do on all other subjects, might mislead you as to his true situation; or rather, might mislead others, who know less than you do, that a thing is not rendered the more probable, by being mentioned in those papers.
I enclose those of Leyden to the present date, with the gazettes of France, and have the honor to be, with sentiments of the most perfect esteem and respect, Sir, your most obedient, humble servant,