Paris, July 18, 1788.
Dear Sir,—Messrs. Berard were to have given me particular accounts of the proceeds of the shipments of rice made to them. But they have failed. I fear, from what they mention, that the price has been less advantageous than usual; which is unlucky, as it falls on the first essay. If on the whole, however, you get as much as you would have done by a sale on the spot, it should encourage other adventures, because the price at Havre or Rouen is commonly higher, and because I think you may, by trials, find out the way to avail yourselves of the Paris retail price. The Carolina rice sold at Paris, is separated into three kinds: 1, the whole grains; 2, the broken grains; 3, the small stuff; and sell at ten, eight, and six livres the French pound, retail. The whole grains, which constitute the first quality, are picked out by hand. I would not recommend this operation to be done with you, because labor is dearer there than here. But I mention these prices, to show, that after making a reasonable deduction for sorting, and leaving a reasonable profit to the retailer, there should still remain a great wholesale price. I shall wish to know from you, how much your cargo of rice shipped to Berard netts you, and how much it would have netted in hard money, if you had sold it at home.
You promise, in your letter of October the 23d, 1787, to give me in your next, at large, the conjectures of your philosopher on the descent of the Creek Indians from the Carthaginians, supposed to have been separated from Hanno's fleet, during his periplus. I shall be very glad to receive them, and see nothing impossible in his conjecture. I am glad he means to appeal to similarity of language, which I consider as the strongest kind of proof it is possible to adduce. I have somewhere read, that the language of the ancient Carthaginians is still spoken by their descendants, inhabiting the mountainous interior parts of Barbary, to which they were obliged to retire by the conquering Arabs. If so, a vocabulary of their tongue can still be got, and if your friend will get one of the Creek languages, the comparison will decide. He probably may have made progress in this business; but if he wishes any enquiries to be made on this side the Atlantic, I offer him my services cheerfully; my wish being like his, to ascertain the history of the American aborigines.
I congratulate you on the accession of your State to the new federal constitution. This is the last I have yet heard of, but I expect daily to hear that my own has followed the good example, and suppose it to be already established. Our government wanted bracing. Still, we must take care not to run from one extreme to another; not to brace too high. I own, I join those in opinion, who think a bill of rights necessary. I apprehend too, that the total abandonment of the principle of rotation in the offices of President and Senator, will end in abuse. But my confidence is, that there will, for a long time, be virtue and good sense enough in our countrymen, to correct abuses. We can surely boast of having set the world a beautiful example of a government reformed by reason alone, without bloodshed. But the world is too far oppressed, to profit by the example. On this side of the Atlantic, the blood of the people is become an inheritance, and those who fatten on it, will not relinquish it easily. The struggle in this country is, as yet, of doubtful issue. It is, in fact, between the monarchy and the parliaments. The nation is no otherwise concerned, but as both parties may be induced to let go some of its abuses, to court the public favor. The danger is, that the people, deceived by a false cry of liberty, may be led to take side with one party, and thus give the other a pretext for crushing them still more. If they can avoid the appeal to arms, the nation will be sure to gain much by this controversy. But if that appeal is made, it will depend entirely on the disposition of the army, whether it issue in liberty or despotism. Those dispositions are not as yet known. In the meantime, there is great probability that the war kindled in the east, will spread from nation to nation, and in the long run, become general.
I am, with the most sincere esteem and attachment, my dear Sir, your friend and servant.
[TO MR. CUTTING.]
Paris, July 24, 1788.
Dear Sir,—I am indebted to your favor of the 11th instant for many details which I have not received otherwise. Not-withstanding a most extensive and laborious correspondence which I keep up with my friends on the other side the water, my information is slow, precarious and imperfect. The New York papers, which I receive regularly, and one or two correspondents in Congress, are my best sources. As you are desirous of having, before your departure for South Carolina, a sketch of European affairs, as they are seen from this position, I will give you the best I can, taking no notice of the "bruit de Paris," which, like the English newspapers, are but guesses, and made generally by persons who do not give themselves the trouble of trying to guess right. I will confine myself to facts, or well-founded probabilities, and among these must necessarily repeat a great deal of what you know already. Perhaps all may be of that description.
The war undertaken by the Turks, unadvisedly, as was conjectured, has been attended with successes which are now hastening the public opinion to the other extreme; but it should be considered that they have been small successes only, in the partizan way. The probable event of the war can only be calculated after a great general action, because it is in that we shall see whether the European discipline has been overrated, and the want of it in the Turks exaggerated. Russia certainly undertook the war unwillingly, and the Emperor, it is thought, would now be glad to get out of it, but the Turks, who demanded a restitution of the Crimea, before they began the war, are not likely to recede from that demand, after the successes they have obtained, nor can Russia yield to it without some more decisive event than has yet taken place. A small affair on the Black Sea, which is believed, though not on grounds absolutely authentic, is calculated to revive her spirits. Twenty-seven gun boats, Russian, have obliged fifty-seven, commanded by the Captain Pacha himself, to retire after an obstinate action. The Russians were commanded by the Prince of Nassau, with whom our Paul Jones acted as volunteer, and probably directed the whole business. I suppose he must have been just arrived, and that his command has not yet been made up. He is to be rear-admiral, and always to have a separate command. What the English newspapers said of remonstrances against his being received into the service, as far as I can learn from those who would have known it, and would have told it to me, was false, as is everything those papers say, ever did say, and ever will say. The probability, and almost certainty, that Sweden will take a part in the war, adds immensely to the embarrassments of Russia, and will almost certainly prevent her fleet going to the Mediterranean. It is tolerably certain that she has been excited to this by the Court of London, and that she has received, through their negotiations, a large subsidy from the Turks (about three millions of thalers), yet the meeting of the two fleets, and their saluting, instead of fighting each other, induces a suspicion that if he can hinder the Russian expedition by hectoring only, he may not mean to do more. Should this power really engage in the war, and should it at length spread to France and England, I shall view the Swedish separation from France as the event which alone decides that the late subversion of the European system will be ultimately serious to France. This power, with the two empires, and Spain, was more than a match for England, Prussia and Holland by land, and balanced them by sea. For on this element France and Spain are equal to England, and Russia to Holland. Sweden was always supposed on the side of France, and to balance Denmark, on the side of England, by land and sea; but if she goes over decidedly into the English scale, the balance at sea will be destroyed by the amount of the whole force of these two powers, who can equip upwards of sixty sail of the line. There is a report, credited by judicious persons, that the Dutch patriots, before their suppression, foreseeing that event, sent orders to the East Indies to deliver Trincomale to the French, and that it has been done. My opinion is, either that this is not true, or that they will re-deliver it, and disavow their officer who accepted it. If they did not think Holland, and all its possessions, worth a war, they cannot think a single one of those possessions worth it. M. de St. Priest has leave to go to the waters. Probably he will then ask and have leave to come to Paris, and await events. The English papers have said the works of Cherbourg were destroyed irreparably. This is a mathematical demonstration that they are not. The truth is, that the head of one cone has been very much beaten off by the waters. But the happiness of that undertaking is, that all its injuries improve it. What is beaten from the head widens the base, and fixes the cone much more solidly. That work will be steadily pursued, and, in all human probability, be finally successful. They calculate on half a million of livres, say £20,000 sterling, for every cone, and that there will be from seventy to eighty cones. Probably they must make more cones, suppose one hundred, this will be two millions of pounds sterling. Versailles has cost fifty millions of pounds sterling. Ought we to doubt then that they will persevere to the end in a work small and useful, in proportion as the other was great and foolish?