Dear Sir,—I had wished to acknowledge the receipt of your favors of January the 19th, and February the 3d, by a private conveyance, but none such having occurred, nor being likely to occur, I must write you such a letter as may go through the inspection of both post offices.
The affairs of this country are still going on well. There are loud contestations indeed in one or two of the provinces, and in Brittany these have come to blows, and some three or four or five people have been killed. Still the opposition to the revolution which is working has been miraculously small, and he who would predict of its failure from the little obstacles which have happened, would be about as good a prophet as he who, from the loss of two or three skirmishes on our part, would have foretold our final failure in the American revolution. All the world here is occupied in electioneering, in choosing or being chosen; and, as far as Paris may be considered as affording a specimen of the public mind, we may say it is almost thoroughly ripe for a just decision of the great question of voting by orders or by persons. The difficulties which now appear threatening to my mind, are those which will result from the size of the Assembly. Twelve hundred persons of any rank and of any nation assembled together, would with difficulty be prevented from tumult and confusion. But when they are to compose an assembly for which no rules of debate or proceeding have been yet formed, in whom no habits of order have been yet established, and to consist moreover of Frenchmen, among whom there are always more speakers than listeners, I confess to you I apprehend some danger. However, I still hope that the goodness of the body, and the coolness and collectedness of some of their leaders, will keep them in the right way, and that this great Assembly will end happily.
The war in the north will, I think, continue, and perhaps spread as far as Prussia. The present and probable situation of the Executive in England, will, I presume, prevent their engaging otherwise than by giving money. If so, this country will certainly not engage herself the present year, and after the present year, if her States General pass over well, she will be in a condition to do what she pleases. I have lately received a letter from Admiral Paul Jones, dated at Petersburg, about the last of January. He was just arrived there on the call of the Empress, and uninformed where he was to act the ensuing campaign. We have no news from America later than the 10th of January, when things were going on well. I find that the friends of the new Constitution are generally disposed to make such changes as may be requisite to guard liberty. This will probably reconcile the bulk of the opposition. Nothing would be more agreeable to me than your company on our voyage to Virginia, and I am sorry I am unable to give such an idea of the epoch of it, as might enable you to decide whether it suited you. Governeur Morris, who is here, informs me that not only there was no Congress when he came away, but that none was expected till the new government. My letters asking leave of absence were not then arrived, and consequently I cannot have that leave but from the new government, nor expect that even they will take it up among their first subjects. This renders the time of my receiving permission uncertain, and should it be so late as that I cannot go, do my business there, and return in the fall, I shall prefer postponing my departure hence to the fall, so that I may return in the spring, being quite decided against a winter passage. You see, therefore, my dear Sir, the impossibility of my fixing the epoch of my departure. Pray continue to me during your stay your interesting political information, and accept assurances of the esteem and respect with which I am, dear Sir, your most obedient humble servant.
[TO MR. JAY.]
Paris, March 12, 1789.
Sir,—I had the honor of addressing you on the 1st instant, through the post. I write the present, uncertain whether Mr. Nesbitt, the bearer of your last, will be the bearer of this, or whether it may not have to wait some other private occasion. They have re-established their packet-boats here indeed; but they are to go from Bourdeaux, which, being between four and five hundred miles from hence, is too far to send a courier with any letters but on the most extraordinary occasions; and without a courier, they must pass through the post office. I shall, therefore, not make use of this mode of conveyance, but prefer sending my letters by a private hand, by the way of London. The uncertainty of finding private conveyances to London, is the principal objection to this.
On the receipt of your letter, advising me to purchase the two volumes of Deane's letters and accounts, I wrote to the person who had them, and after some offers and refusals, he let me have them for twenty-five louis, instead of twenty louis asked at first. He told me that Deane had still six or eight volumes more, and that when he should return to London, he would try to get them, in order to make himself whole for the money he had lent Deane. As I knew he would endeavor to make us pay dear for them, and it appeared to be your opinion and that of the members you had consulted, that it was an object worthy attention, I wrote immediately to a friend in London, to endeavor to purchase them from Deane himself, whose distresses and crapulous habits will probably render him more easy to deal with. I authorized him to go as far as fifty guineas. I have as yet no answer from him. I enclose you a letter which I wrote last month to our bankers in Holland. As it will itself explain the cause of its being written, I shall not repeat its substance here. In answer to my proposition, to pay bills for the medals and the redemption of our captives, they quote a resolution of Congress (which, however, I did not find in the printed journals) appropriating the loans of 1787 and 1788 to the payment of interest on the Dutch loans till 1790, inclusive, and the residue to salaries and contingencies in Europe, and they argue that, according to this, they are not to pay anything in Europe, till they shall first have enough to pay all the interest which will become due to the end of the year 1790; and that it is out of personal regard, that they relax from this so far as to pay diplomatic salaries. So that here is a clear declaration they will answer no other demands, till they have in hand money enough for all the interest to the end of the year 1790. It is but a twelvemonth since I have had occasion to pay attention to the proceedings of those gentlemen; but during that time, I have observed, that as soon as a sum of interest is becoming due, they are able to borrow just that, and no more; or, at least, only so much more as may pay our salaries and keep us quiet. Were they not to borrow for the interest, the failure to pay that would sink the value of the capital, of which they are considerable sharers. So far, their interests and ours concur. But there, perhaps, they may separate. I think it possible, they may choose to support our credit to a certain point, and let it go no further, but at their will; to keep it so poised, as that it may be at their mercy. By this, they may be sure to keep us in their own hands. They write word to the treasury, that in order to raise money for the February interest, they were obliged to agree with the subscribers, that Congress should open no other loan at Amsterdam this year, till this one be filled up, and that this shall not be filled but by the present subscribers, and they not obliged to fill it. This is delivering us, bound hand and foot, to the subscribers, that is, to themselves. Finding that they would not raise money for any other purpose, without being pushed, I wrote the letter I enclose you. They answer, as I have stated, by refusing to pay, alleging the appropriation of Congress. I have written again, to press them further, and to propose to them the payment of thirty thousand florins only, for the case of our captives, as I am in hopes this may do. In the close of my letter to them, you will observe I refer them, as to the article of foreign officers, to the board of treasury. I had, in truth, received the printed journals a few days before, but had not yet had time to read them carefully, and particularly had not then noted the vote of Congress of August the 20th, directing me to attend to that article. I shall not fail to do what I can in it; but I am afraid they will consider this also as standing on the same ground with the other contingent articles.
This country, being generally engaged in its elections, affords nothing new and worthy of communication. The hopes of accommodation between Turkey and the two empires, do not gain strength. The war between Russia and Denmark on the one hand, and Sweden on the other, is likely also to go on, the mediation of England being rendered of little force by the accident to its Executive. The progress of this war, and also of the broils in Poland, may possibly draw the King of Prussia into it, during the ensuing campaign; and it must, before it be finished, take in this country, and perhaps England. The ill humor on account of the Dutch revolution continues to rankle here. They have recalled their ambassador from the Hague, and manifestly to show their dissatisfaction with that court, and some very dry memorials have lately been exchanged, on the subject of the money this country assumed to pay the Emperor, for the Dutch. I send you very full extracts of these, which will show you the dispositions of the two courts towards each other. Whether, and when this country will be able to take an active part, will depend on the issue of the States General. If they fund their public debts judiciously, and will provide further funds for a war, on the English plan, I believe they will be able to borrow any sums they please. In the meantime, the situation of England will leave them at leisure to settle their internal affairs well. That ministry, indeed, pretend their King is perfectly re-established. No doubt they will make the most of his amendment, which is real, to a certain degree. But as, under pretence of this, they have got rid of the daily certificates of the physicians, and they are possessed of the King's person, the public must judge hereafter from such facts only as they can catch. There are several at present which, put together, induce a presumption that the King is only better, not well. And should he be well, time will be necessary to give a confidence, that it is not merely a lucid interval. On the whole, I think we may conclude, that that country will not take a part in the war this year, which was by no means certain before.
M. del Pinto, formerly minister of Portugal at London, and the same who negotiated the treaty with us, being now put at the head of the ministry of that country, I presume that negotiation may be renewed successfully, if it be the desire of our government. Perhaps an admission of our flour into their ports may be obtained now, as M. del Pinto seemed impressed with our reasoning on that subject, and promised to press it on his court, though he could not then venture to put it into the treaty. There is not the same reason to hope any relaxation as to our reception in Brazil, because he would scarcely let us mention that at all. I think, myself, that it is their interest to take away all temptations to our co-operation in the emancipation of their colonies: and I know no means of doing this, but the making it our interest that they should continue dependent, nor any other way of making this our interest, but by allowing us a commerce with them. However, this is a mode of reasoning which their ministry, probably, could not bear to listen to.