Of the many hundreds of proverbs relating to the seasons a few are sage, some outworn, and many sheer nonsense. Nearly all refer to the obvious fact that one kind of season is followed by another rather unlike it, not much telling what. And there, unsatisfactorily enough, they leave one. But much is to be hoped for from the scientific explorations now in progress. And until they are heard from few of us will realize how many seasonable seasons we really enjoy.
CHAPTER VII
THE WEATHER BUREAU
At the cost of a cent and a half a year apiece we Americans are supplied with detailed information in advance about the weather. And the information is correct for more than four-fifths of the time. If stock brokers never missed oftener, what reputations would accrue!
Cheapness, accuracy, and a certain modesty are the three qualities that distinguish the out-givings of the Bureau from the old-fashioned predictions of the weather which used to appear in almanacs. Almanacs have probably kept appearing ever since the art of printing first allowed unscrupulous persons to juggle with words. They cost fifty cents and their predictions were based on nothing but the strength of their author’s imagination. Of course, it was impossible for him to guess wrong more than half the time so that when he announced in January that July would be hot with thunderstorms he was often right. This gave him prestige, but aided his clients little.
The Weather Bureau was in about the same position in regard to the quack predictions of the almanacs as was the honest doctor of the last decade who could only prescribe good food and fresh air and moderate exercise for the patient who much preferred the expensive allurements of the medicinal cure-all as advertised. In humility the Bureau said that as things stood it could not forecast with accuracy for more than 48 hours, and its honesty brought it into disregard.
But, although the Weather Bureau,—like the Christian Church and other things that have had to combat superstition at every step—has grown slowly it has grown surely and its work is being recognized more widely and relied upon more understandingly every month. It was an American scientist who discovered the rotary motion of cyclones and their progressive character, but due to the conservative nature of our Government three other nations had established weather services before we had. In 1870 the War Department was authorized to start a system of observations that would permit of a rough sort of forecasting. The forecasts proved of so much value to shippers and sailors that the work was handed over to the Department of Agriculture and enlarged (1891). To-day every part of our country contributes to the knowledge of existing weather conditions.
At 8 A. M. observations are made at hundreds of stations and wired to the Central Office at Washington. The Chief there, knowing these conditions, is enabled to locate a storm, to gauge its rate of speed, to learn its course, and to measure its intensity. He can dictate storm warnings and be sure that within an hour every sailing master will have a copy. He can detect a cold wave at its entrance into our territory and know that within an hour every shipper, every truckster (who has signified that he wishes to be informed) will have the facts that will save him money.