Reading the Weather

by Thomas Morris Longstreth

CHAPTER VIII

A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS

In the good old times when a man was born, spent his life, and died in the same village the weather proverb was fashioned. Generations had watched the clouds gather under certain circumstances and scatter under certain others and they naturally drew conclusions. These conclusions crystallized until they resembled nuggets of golden weather wisdom. Some were even used as charms. And all contained a deal of truth so long as they were only meant to refer to the country in which they had originated.

But nowadays when the very idea of remaining in the same place for very long at a time is obnoxious the weather proverb suffers. It suffers chiefly by transportation. The weather in County Cork is so very different from the weather that makes Chicago famous that the same weather lore does not fit. Yet it is often applied. The old truths, treasured in picturesque phrase and jingle, were brought over the ocean unchanged and made to do duty,—a case of new wine in old bottles again, for a gentle old Irish proverb splits up the back when it tries to accommodate itself to a week of our reckless but magnificent weather.

Fairy stories are jewels to be cherished. And it is a careless and unimaginative race that perpetuates no legends. Even old saws are quaint and should be preserved: “See a pin and pick it up, all the day you’ll have good luck.” Let that sort of thing go on because it adds richness to our conversation. But if a thousand men, after having picked up their morning pins, sat around waiting for the ensuing luck the progress of scientific business management would be halted. And precisely that way is the knowledge of ordinary weather facts halted,—a full-grown superstition sits in the path. Instead of relying upon their eyes the majority of people rely upon a bit of doggerel. For example, millions of people firmly believe that the ground-hog is a key to the weather. They say that if the ground-hog does not see his shadow on the 2nd of February that winter is over!

This is the sort of thing that obscures the findings of science not to mention common-sense. Few of these people have ever seen a ground-hog. Few of the rest have ever studied its habits. The ant, the mouse, the fly, the rat, and the mosquito have far more influence upon our lives than the ground-hog has and the most ambitious animal cannot expect to influence atmospheric pressure, which is responsible for our weather. Yet as often as the 2nd of February comes around the hopes of many are either dashed or raised according to the actions of this creature. As a matter of fact, whether February 2nd is clear or cloudy can have no influence on the rest of the winter.

Almost all the other proverbs have a basis of reason. But this puts its believers in the wrong either way. If they say that it is the actions of the animal that they rely upon they depend upon a characteristic thoroughly and surely disproved. No animal, although it may sense a change in the weather a few hours in advance, is able to feel it for three days ahead to say nothing of six weeks. If these people say, on the other hand, that a cloudy February 2nd means an immediate and complete let up of winter, or that a clear February 2nd means a certain continuance of cold weather for six weeks, they have only to trouble themselves to look at the files of the nearest Weather Bureau for the last forty years. They will find no connection. The trouble is that they will not look, but keep on repeating the bit of nonsense and believing in it, although the strength of their convictions probably does not reduce their coal-bills.

The same people are fond of saying that the first three days of December show what the winter will be like. That is, if the 1st is fair so will December be; if the 2nd is cold so will January be; and if it snows on the 3rd, so will it snow in February. If all three should be clear and warm certainly a remarkable winter would follow! No rain, no snow, no cold! You see how absurd this superstition is.

“A dry moon lies on its back!” After the ground-hog the moon is supposed to have the most influence on our seasons. The Government and many scientists connected with no governments have made careful, exhaustive and conclusive investigations. No relation between the moon and our weather has been discovered except as she causes our tides and they affect atmospheric pressure in an infinitesimal degree. We would still have just as much and just as variable weather if there were no moon. The weather changes with the changing moon, and it does not change as the moon changes, and the chances are about even that the times of change will coincide. So there is, therefore, absolutely no foundation for the dozens of proverbs that yoke the changes of the moon with the changes of our weather. Neither in science nor in observation has any sequence been deduced.