The significance of these facts in connection with prevention of plague is apparent and it is plain that our warfare against fleas must be made upon all fleas and not upon a single variety. In this connection the possibilities of the conveyance of plague bacilli by other suctorial parasites and by insects which are not parasites, must be borne in mind.
Thus the bed-bug, the louse, the tick and the mosquito must be suspected as possible intermediaries and the fly and the cockroach as possible food contaminators. Indeed, laboratory experiments have already incriminated bed-bugs, flies and lice as potential vectors of plague bacilli.
Experiment and observation have demonstrated, however, that above all other parasites and insects, the flea is most likely to convey the plague germ from rat to man, by reason of his frequent excursions from rat-host to human-host, his taste for blood from either host, his enormous activity and his ability to jump. After a searching inquiry into the plague question the Indian Plague Commission came to the conclusion that contagion plays a very minor part in the spread of the disease, less than three per cent of human cases being so acquired.
This commission also decided that infection is conveyed from rat to rat and from rat to man solely through the agency of fleas. While these conclusions are probably true—and therefore of the utmost importance from the standpoint of practical prevention—I should question whether the other possibilities, however remote, are entirely negligible.
Seasonal conditions may affect the course of an epidemic in various ways. (a) By effect upon flea prevalence, cold weather greatly lessening the number of insects. (b) By effect upon rats, cold weather and rains either driving them from overground to underground, or vice versa, or from their principal avenues of travel in cities (the sewers), into houses and buildings. (c) By effect upon the plague germ, Bacillus pestis. The resistance of this organism is very variable, sunlight and drying being its greatest enemies, while darkness and dampness are its chief allies. So far as temperature is concerned, the plague bacillus is not likely to be seriously affected by natural temperatures, as it is not destroyed by heat below 150 degrees Fahrenheit, nor by cold measured by zero Fahrenheit, which means that it survives freezing, generally speaking.
It is probable that the periods of greatest seasonal prevalence of plague will be found to correspond generally with increased prevalence of rat fleas. During the periods when rat fleas are absent or least prevalent, the disease is perpetuated in the form of chronic (subacute) rat plague in a small number of the rodents. The India Plague Commission made and verified this observation.
Cholera epidemics often abate spontaneously and this is believed to be due in part to attenuations of virulence and changes in the cholera organism which may be demonstrated in the laboratory. We can hardly hope for such spontaneous abatements in plague epidemics, as it has been found difficult to attenuate or to intensify cultures of plague bacilli permanently in laboratory experiments with animals. If it is true that plague epidemics are often marked by a preponderance of mild cases in the early days and a gradual subsidence of intensity of the cases as the epidemics wane, we probably will have to look to the susceptibility of our patients for our explanation of this phenomenon, rather than to variations in the virulence of the plague bacilli. If plague bacilli continue to be distributed to susceptible people the disease should continue with a general stability of virulence.
Stability of Virulence of B. Pestis.—According to Strong, stability of virulence is a marked characteristic of B. pestis, it having been shown by him that it is difficult to increase the virulence of a very virulent strain or to intensify an attenuated one in laboratory animals, working with monkeys, rats and guinea-pigs.[2] If his observations are correct (and they seem to correspond with the findings of other observers), the oft-recorded occurrence of a preponderance of mild cases of plague in the early days of an epidemic and the gradual subsidence in intensity of the disease as the epidemic approaches its close will have to be explained upon other grounds than those of variability of virulence by attenuation of virulent strains alone. While he admits that B. pestis may become attenuated under certain conditions many times during the course of an epidemic, it may also regain its virulence, he contends, under other conditions.
[2] "Studies in Plague Immunity," R. P. Strong, Philippines Journal of Science, June 1907, No. 3. Frequent reference has been made to these studies in the preparation of this article, for which acknowledgment is hereby made.
With these facts concerning the cause and the manner of extension of plague and its menace before us, we are in position to approach the problem of prevention intelligently, and in the case of plague prevention is preëminently preferable to cure, as well as decidedly more practicable.