Sir: I send to Mr. R—— a pamphlet entitled "Suppressed Documents." The notes and comments were written by the gentleman who has written the analysis which I sent by a former conveyance. These works have greatly contributed to excite the fears of the men of talents and property, who now prefer the chance of maintaining their party by open resistance and a final separation, to an alliance with France and a war with England; so that, should the Government unexpectedly, and contrary to all reasonable calculation, attempt to involve the country in a measure of that nature, I am convinced (now that the elections have all terminated favorably) that none of the New England States would be a party in it. But, as I have repeatedly written, the General Government does not seriously entertain any such desire or intention. Had the majority in the New England States continued to approve of the public measures, it is extremely probable that Great Britain would now have to choose between war and concession. But the aspect of things in this respect is changed, and a war would produce an incurable alienation of the Eastern States, and bring the whole country in subordination to the interests of England, whose navy would prescribe and enforce the terms upon which the commercial States should carry, and the agricultural States export, their surplus produce. All this is as well known to the Democrats as to the other party; therefore, they will avoid a war, at least until the whole nation is unanimous for it. Still, when we consider of what materials the Government is formed, it is impossible to speak with any certainty of their measures. The past Administration, in every transaction, presents to the mind only a muddy commixture of folly, weakness, and duplicity. The spell by which the nations of Europe have been rendered inert and inefficient, when they attempted to shake it off, has stretched its shadows across the Atlantic, and made a majority of the people of these States alike blind to duty and to their true interests. I am, &c.
A. B.
No. 12.
Boston, April 26, 1809.
Sir: Since my letter No. 11, I have had but little to communicate.
I have not yet been able to ascertain, with sufficient accuracy, the relative strength of the two parties in the legislative bodies in New England.
In all these States, however, Governors have been elected out of the Federal party, and even the Southern papers indicate an unexpected augmentation of Federal members in the next Congress.
The correspondence between Mr. Erskine and the Secretary of State at Washington you will have seen before this can reach you. It has given much satisfaction to the Federal party here, because it promises an exemption from the evil most feared, (a war with England,) and justifies their partiality towards Great Britain, which they maintain was founded upon a full conviction of her justice, and sincere disposition to preserve peace. Even the Democrats affect to be satisfied with it; because, as they insist, it proves the efficacy of the restrictive system of Mr. Jefferson.
But the great benefit that will probably result from it will be, that Bonaparte may be induced to force this country from her neutral position. Baffled in his attempts to exclude from the continent the manufactures of Great Britain, he will most likely confiscate all American property in his dominions and dependencies, and declare war. Nothing could more than this contribute to give influence and stability to the British party. The invidious occurrences of the rebellion would be forgotten in the resentment of the people against France, and they would soon be weaned from that attachment to her which is founded on the aid that was rendered to separate from the mother country. While Great Britain waits for this natural, I might say necessary, result of the negotiation, would it not be extremely inexpedient to conclude a treaty with the American Government? Every sort of evidence and experience prove that the Democrats consider their political ascendency in a great measure dependent on the hostile spirit that they can keep alive towards Great Britain, and recent events demonstrate that their conduct will be predicated upon that conviction; it is, therefore, not to be expected that they will meet, with corresponding feelings, a sincere disposition on the part of England to adjust all matters in dispute. They are at heart mortified and disappointed to find that Great Britain has been in advance of the French Government, in taking advantage of the provisional clauses of the non-intercourse law; and if they show any spirit at the next session of Congress towards France, it will be only because they will find Bonaparte deaf to entreaty and insensible of past favors; or that they may think it safer to float with the tide of public feeling, which will set strongly against him unless he keep pari passu with England in a conciliatory policy. I am, &c.
A. B.