c. The guide presents estimates of personnel status at specific time points. These range from 1 to 3 hours to 7 to 30 days after an attack, depending on the type of agent considered. Such estimates are projected from all possible combinations of the following conditions:
- Seven operational scenarios involving three types of units: heavy brigade, support brigade, and light infantry brigade.
- Three chemical agents: the nerve agents GB and VX, and the blister agent HD.
- Three types of munitions delivering the agents: aerial bombs, tactical ballistic missiles, and rounds from multiple launch rocket systems/artillery batteries—
- Three attack intensities for each type of munition: light, moderate, and heavy.
- Two postures of individual physical protection against the attacks: unavailable and available.
d. An index to essential information and four sample problems to illustrate use of this information are at the end of the guide (see Section 11). Section 11 provides a planning guide overview, describes applications, and presents a brief explanation of modeling methods used to prepare estimates.
e. The guide is subject to limitations of extent and content. Since there are many more possible attack variables than those considered, the guide presents a limited number of estimates. These estimates are based upon the best available toxicological values, but such values are qualified estimates. Therefore, medical planners and staff personnel should use FM 8-9, NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations, AMedP-6 (B), Part III—Chemical, for more authoritative medical descriptions and information on effects of longer duration.
f. The guide is most value to the user who needs to know what kinds of casualties to expect, relative numbers of each, and the time frames in which they are likely to appear. To assist the user, who lacks experience in actual CW, the guide describes types of injury, relevant factors, general magnitudes of effects, and effects of time courses on chemical casualty numbers. The casualty estimates are appropriate for training exercises. However, this initial attempt to provide complex estimates has limitations for battlefield use. The limitations are described as follows:
- The guide provides estimates for a few of many possible chemical attacks. Each estimate is based upon computer modeling of the consequences of specified conditions. This is like saying that the numbers of men who sneeze, after inhaling an allergic flower pollen, might be predicted if specific information (EXAMPLE: The wind speed and direction, the current weather, altitude, time of day, and sites of concentrated flower growth) is known for the specific geographic location of a particular brigade on a given mountain. If such estimates are made for a few widely different mountains, a user of the estimates may be able to guess the numbers of sneezing men in his own brigade, located on a separate mountain. However, if the conditions on both mountains are not nearly identical, the user will need to estimate a scaling factor and apply it to adjust the number predicted for a different environment.
- It is unlikely that exactly identical conditions will exist for any two mountains or chemical attacks. The user of the guide must decide which scenario best represents his conditions (or interpolate from two scenarios), then use or adjust the estimates. Therefore, each user must recognize any differences from modeled conditions that might require him to increase, or decrease, an estimate. The user may need to apply a commander's guidance on acceptable risk levels, or consider restrictions of available resources, before accepting, interpreting, or modifying the relevant planning guide numbers. The most difficult problem for the user will be to determine how much to increase, or decrease, planning guide numbers to fit the user's situation. This problem is discussed in paragraph 3.4 of the guide.
- The user should be aware that medical worst-case targeting selects for maximal numbers of survivors entering the medical system, not for maximal operational losses. The tabulated estimates are very highly sensitive to the degree of clustering of personnel and their assumed location within a standardized brigade area. Accordingly, use of this targeting method leads to large variations that are based upon the probabilities of hitting clustered personnel, not evenly or widely distributed personnel. Therefore, these estimates do not provide a good basis for estimating the most likely outcomes for a series of "average" attacks, or for comparing a scenario with an actual attack. Although the tabular format of the guide suggests that the listed numbers are exact, the user should understand that different targeting could readily produce other numbers. Selection of a scaling factor Is discussed in paragraph 3.4 of the guide.
D-20. Medical Planning Considerations
a. The guide provides medical planners and staff personnel with a systematic means for estimating chemical casualties in various-sized units, without regard to composition. This document provides more accurate and detailed estimates and is based upon detailed operational scenarios for brigade-sized units. Both chemical planning guides support estimates of combat performance from individuals remaining in the unit.