Action: FEMA will develop and negotiate, before the event, an agreement with the State of California which will enable the President to declare a major disaster and initiate full-scale Federal support for lifesaving and humanitarian action within minutes of a catastrophic earthquake. The agreement will defer resolution of issues relating to longer-term restoration and recovery and similar questions with large budgetary implications until adequate damage estimates are available. The Executive Branch will thus be able to arrive at an informed decision.
Issue: Significant improvements in the Federal, State, and local capability for coordination of operational response to a catastrophic earthquake are needed.
Actions: FEMA and other appropriate Federal agencies will increase their efforts, in a partnership with appropriate State and local agencies and volunteer and private-sector organizations, to:
- Complete development and agreement on fully integrated earthquake response plans for both the San Francisco and Los Angeles regions, including provision for predicted as well as unpredicted earthquakes, building upon the existing draft plan for San Francisco.
- Establish a small FEMA staff in California dedicated to the coordination of earthquake preparedness planning and implementation.
- Develop improved mechanisms for the coordination of medical and mortuary activities following a catastrophic earthquake.
- Identify and document the critical requirements for emergency communications—particularly non-telephonic communications—among Federal, State, and local agencies. Shortfalls between critical requirements and current capabilities, as well as remedial actions or recommended solutions for each will be identified in accordance with the "National Plan for Communications Support in Emergencies and Major Disasters." This review will include consideration of using existing satellite communications or a dedicated system, should it be found necessary.
- Cooperatively conduct practice response exercises with State and local officials that will prepare officials and the public for conditions that might be encountered in a catastrophic earthquake and that would reveal deficiencies in planning.
Issue: Improving the current inadequate preparedness of the public for a catastrophic earthquake requires a substantial increase in public information and public awareness. Although public information is primarily a State, local, and private-sector responsibility, the Federal Government has a role as well. Because citizens will have no choice but to rely largely upon their own resources in the first several hours immediately following a catastrophic earthquake, it is important that certain basic knowledge about lifesaving measures be very widely disseminated.
Action: FEMA will stimulate and work with the State of California and other appropriate groups to develop and publicize earthquake awareness, hazard mitigation techniques, specific post-earthquake actions to be taken, including first aid, and other pertinent information.
Issue: The possibility of a credible, scientifically-based prediction of a catastrophic earthquake poses serious challenges to government and our society. The current level of scientific understanding of earthquake prediction and the available resources are such that present instrumentation efforts are directed toward research rather than maintaining extensive monitoring networks for real-time prediction. The transition from research to fully operational capability will require additional scientific understanding as well as resources. Earthquake predictions are possible, perhaps likely, however, from the current research effort. Even with a significant level of uncertainty, any scientifically credible prediction that indicates a catastrophic earthquake is expected within about 1 year or less, will require very difficult and consequential decisions on the part of elected officials at all levels of government. Decisions may include such possibilities as the mobilization of National Guard and U.S. Department of Defense resources prior to the event, the imposition of special procedures or drills at potentially hazardous facilities, such as nuclear reactors or dams, the condemnation or evacuation of particularly unsafe buildings with the subsequent need for temporary housing, and the provisions of special protection of fragile inventories. If the prediction is correct and appropriate actions are taken, thousands of lives can be saved and significant economic losses can be avoided. The costs of responding to a prediction may be substantial, however, and the commitment of resources undoubtedly will have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty and even reluctance. Indeed, the possibility of an inaccurate prediction must be faced squarely.
Actions: FEMA, in conjunction with other appropriate Federal agencies, State and local governments, and volunteer and private-sector organizations, will increase its actions to develop procedures for responding to a credible, scientific earthquake prediction, including:
- Identification of constructive and prudent actions to be taken
- Analysis of the costs and benefits of various alternative actions
- Identification of roles and responsibilities in deciding which actions should be implemented and by whom
- Criteria for evaluating circumstances when the provision of Federal assistance would be appropriate
The U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior will: