IDENTIFYING AND SELECTING THE MOST APPROPRIATE RESEARCH/MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

Factors that should be considered in making research/management decisions include (1) that the humpback whale is an endangered species; (2) that there are statutory requirements to protect the whales and their habitats; (3) that the cause of the present problem is uncertain; (4) that the purpose of the Monument is to provide for educational, recreational, and scientific experiences; and (5) that limiting access or restricting or closing the Monument to some or all vessel activity could affect commercial and private enterprises, including fishing.

Additionally, there are a number of types and possible consequences of decision errors that should also be considered—e.g.,

1. If Glacier Bay is a critical habitat, and if the [movement] of humpbacks is in response to whale watching vessels, pleasure boats, cruise vessels, etc., and if the movement is or will be irreversible; then the humpback whale population will be adversely impacted (e.g., carrying capacity reduced) if no action is taken.
2.If Glacier Bay is not a critical habitat, and if movement is due to whale watching vessels, etc., and it is or will be irreversible; then only the quality of visitor experience/value of monument is decreased if no action is taken. The impact on the population of humpbacks is not critical so long as suitable habitat is available elsewhere. However, the NPS mandate established in the 1916 Act still would not be fulfilled.
3.If all, or a specific type of, vessel traffic is prohibited or regulated, and the movement from the Bay is not caused, directly or indirectly by such traffic; then there will be decreased opportunity for human activity within the Bay, and increased economic impacts on fishermen and commercial operators that may have been unnecessarily restricted.

The optimal short-term research/management strategy would minimize the risks associated with the kinds of errors discussed above, and include actions such as the following:

1) by early 1980, compile and complete the analysis and evaluation of all existing and relevant data;
2)based upon the evaluation of the best available data, promulgate temporary (one season) whale watching regulations and/or restrict access by all or certain classes of vessels or the number, frequency, or duration of visits of all or certain classes of vessels to certain areas at certain times of the year, as may be appropriate;
3)continue and, if appropriate expand, surveys of whale/vessel numbers, distribution, movements, behavior and interactions in and outside Glacier Bay;
4)identify and initiate additional research that is needed to identify and mitigate the cause or causes of the observed humpback whale movement from the Bay, e.g.,
a. characterize the acoustical environment of Glacier Bay and other areas in which humpbacks occur; b.characterize the sounds generated by various classes of vessels and aircraft; c.design and conduct sound playback experiments to test hypotheses concerning the possible effects of vessel activities on humpback whale movements and behavior; and d.assess and monitor the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of Glacier Bay, especially the distribution and abundance of prey species upon which humpback whales feed.
a. characterize the acoustical environment of Glacier Bay and other areas in which humpbacks occur;
b.characterize the sounds generated by various classes of vessels and aircraft;
c.design and conduct sound playback experiments to test hypotheses concerning the possible effects of vessel activities on humpback whale movements and behavior; and
d.assess and monitor the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of Glacier Bay, especially the distribution and abundance of prey species upon which humpback whales feed.

The optimal long-range research/management strategy would include:

1) the development and implementation of a humpback whale recovery plan to include humpback whales in all of Glacier Bay, all of southeast Alaska and the North Pacific in general, including: the identification, designation and protection of critical humpback whale habitat;
2)the development of a universal and/or site-specific definition of "harassment" to apply to humpback whales in Glacier Bay, southeast Alaska and the North Pacific in general;
3)the development and implementation of a long-range research/management plan for the Monument including whale and environmental monitoring;
4)a determination as to the direct and indirect effects of incidental take, whale watching, fishing activity, etc. on humpback whales in Glacier Bay, Southeast Alaska and the North Pacific in general; and
5)a determination as to the long-term cumulative impacts of the degradation and destruction of habitat on the survival of the humpback whale throughout its range in the North Pacific.