“The moment England’s food supply routes are cut, she is forced to capitulate. The import of food and fuel depends on the fleet’s protection.
“If the German Air Force attacks English territory, England will not be forced to capitulate in one day. But if the fleet is destroyed immediate capitulation will be the result.
“There is no doubt that a surprise attack can lead to a quick decision. It would be criminal, however, for the government to rely entirely on the element of surprise.
“Experience has shown that surprise may be nullified by—
“1. Disclosure outside the limit of the military circles concerned.
“2. Mere chance, which may cause the collapse of the whole enterprise.
“3. Human failings.
“4. Weather conditions.
“The final date for striking must be fixed well in advance. Beyond that time, the tension cannot be endured for long. It must be borne in mind that weather conditions can render any surprise intervention by Navy and Air Force impossible.
“This must be regarded as a most unfavorable basis of action.