PROGNOSIS.—The prognosis of normal uncomplicated measles is very favorable. Thus, of 257 cases observed by Meigs and Pepper (op. cit.), all terminated favorably. But in coming to any conclusion in regard to prognosis a number of different factors must be taken into consideration. Among the more important are—the hygienic surroundings of the patient, the age, the nature of the complications, whether the measles be primary or secondary, and the character of the epidemic. In the first place, rubeola in foundling hospitals and among the poorer classes in large cities gives a larger ratio of deaths than among the well-to-do members of the community. For instance, Bartels has shown that catarrhal pneumonia, one of the most frequent causes of mortality in this disease, is particularly prone to occur among those dwelling in crowded, poorly-ventilated houses. Then, again, the asylums and hospitals for children are peopled in many instances with the victims of depraved constitutions, who readily succumb to intercurrent maladies.
Leaving out of consideration sucklings under six months of age, in whom measles is rare and said to be slight, most deaths from the disease occur among very young children, from their greater liability to complications. According to Beddoes,39 the mortality from measles is, beyond all comparison, greatest in the second year of life, and by the tenth has become quite trifling. An examination of the statistics bearing on this question coincides with this general statement; but Fox's tables, already quoted, would show that more infants under one year of age die of measles than has hitherto been supposed. The susceptibility to measles decreases with years, perhaps on account of the fact that most adults have already contracted the disease; but when it does attack the unprotected adult it may prove fatal. This statement is borne out by the large death-rate in the so-called camp measles of our late war.40 The ravages of measles in virgin communities have been referred to in preceding pages. The general temper of the epidemic must also be considered, since it is well recognized that the essential character of epidemics differs much as to severity.
39 Art. "Mortality" in Quain's Dictionary Med., p. 1002.
40 In the general field hospital at Chattanooga the death-rate was 22.4 in 100 cases. In General Hospital No. 1, at Nashville, it was 19.6 in 100, or nearly 1 in 5. Many died or became permanently disabled from the sequelæ (Bartholow).
Such complications as diphtheria, catarrhal pneumonia, diarrhoea, convulsions, etc. necessarily affect the prognosis of measles most seriously. More patients die of measles in the second than in the first week of the disease. The careful studies of temperature made by Thomas, Bohn, and others show that an unusually high and increasing fever in the prodromal stage is of ill omen, particularly on the second and third days, and a fever heat measuring over 105° F. at any stage should be considered as very unfavorable.41 Particularly to be feared is continuation of the fever after the subsidence of the eruption, or a sudden elevation after the normal curve has been reached. In fact, it is a safe rule to look upon all anomalies of the curve with suspicion. Secondary measles, or measles grafted upon some serious existing affection, is particularly fatal.
41 In adolescence a body heat of 107° F. has been safely passed during the decline of measles with no marked complication (Squire).
TREATMENT.—There is no remedy which will destroy the susceptibility to measles. The future may develop some form of vaccination against rubeola, for, certainly, the hopes held out by the inoculation of measles upon the healthy subject have not been realized, as this procedure merely reproduces the original complaint, without any diminution in its intensity, and does not lessen the probability of complications (Mayr). The matter of carrying out a practical and efficient quarantine in measles is one of unusual difficulty, for the reason that the disease is capable of active propagation at a time—the prodromal stage—when it is not yet sufficiently characteristic for positive diagnosis. But, as measles is by no means as trivial a disease as would seem to be the common impression, I hold it as a well-established principle of preventive medicine that a strict isolation should be enforced whenever, from the nature of the case, it is at all possible; certainly, very young children and those suffering from or showing a tendency to other diseases should be jealously shielded from exposure.
The usual precautions as to disinfection and purification of the room, bedding, and utensils used by patients should be observed, as in other infectious diseases. Squire is of opinion that there is danger of personal infection for perhaps a month, and Hillairet that isolation for forty days should be enjoined. It is quite certain that inunction lessens the danger of infection, and Kaposi42 is authority for the statement that a warm bath administered after the completion of desquamation, or about fourteen days from the beginning of the attack, will effectually prevent contagiousness.
42 Pathologie u. Therapie der Hautkrankh., Wien, 1880.
The apartment occupied by a patient suffering from measles should be kept at a uniform temperature of from 66° to 70° F., and free ventilation, at the same time avoiding draughts, should be enforced. The room should be kept moderately dark. The bed-clothing should be light, yet sufficiently warm, and the old notion of keeping the patient in a profuse sweat the better to bring out the eruption should be discouraged. The diet should be bland and nutritious, and may preferably consist of milk, gruel, tapioca, and such like substances. As convalescence progresses there may be a gradual return to more substantial food. The patient may be allowed cool water in moderation, as it is cruel and useless, and even harmful, to restrict one suffering with fever to warm or sweetened drink. The patient should be confined to his room until convalescence has been fully established, and should not be allowed to leave the house, both on his own account and that of others, until the usual health has been regained. Any of the lingering results of the disease, such as bronchitis, otorrhoea, conjunctivitis, etc., should receive prompt attention; iron and cod-liver oil should be prescribed for the weakly and strumous, and regular hours of sleep, careful diet, and appropriate bathing and exercise should be advised. It may be said, without exaggeration, that neglect of the after-care of measles patients is, in some instances, more to be deprecated than a similar neglect in the actual treatment of the disease itself.