The tufted puffin, as previously indicated, is also a bird with widely fluctuating populations. Until we develop an understanding of their population dynamics and can understand the underlying cause of these fluctuations it will not be possible to assess trends in their populations or understand the implications of such trends.
Tufted puffins are abundant throughout the Gulf of Alaska. Small colonies can be located almost anywhere. Along the Alaska Peninsula there are a number of colonies with an estimated breeding population in 1973 of more than 15,000 birds. These are: Ashiiak Island (20,000), Central Island (90,000), the Brother Islands (45,000), The Haystacks (19,000), Castle Rock (85,000), Bird Island (none, but may contain 500,000-1,000,000 at times), Peninsula Islands (35,000), the Twins (18,000), Amagat Island (40,000), and Umga Island (22,000). These colonies correspond to the area where colonies were listed for the horned puffin.
Tufted puffin populations respond readily to some undetermined short-term perturbations. This is clearly demonstrated by their rapid population fluctuations. Because of their numbers and because of the apparent rapidity with which their numbers rebound, it is not so apparent that they have been affected by long-term perturbations, as so many other seabirds apparently have.
There is much unused or underused nesting habitat suitable for this species. In some cases there are very strong clues pointing to why this habitat is vacant. On many islands along the Alaska Peninsula, which have very good-looking tufted puffin nesting habitat and no puffins, there are visible signs of the presence of fox—either fox trails or abandoned trappers' cabins. I also suspect that the brown bear (Ursa arctos) is another possible contributing factor to population declines of burrow nesters along this coast. I have seen brown bears swimming from island to island on foraging expeditions. George J. Divoky (personal communication) has found brown bears visiting Ugaiushak Island, which is 13 km from shore. There are other islands between Ugaiushak and the mainland but the shortest route from shore would require one swim of 7 km. The motivation must be strong.
Tufted puffins may shift from colony to colony. This could be an explanation for apparent local population fluctuation, but if so, I am puzzled by the apparent tenacity with which puffins cling to some sites. Their constant occupancy of sites where the vegetative mat is breakaway tundra (Amundsen 1972) or is underlain by sand results in the destruction of these sites. Tufted puffins often cling to them in spite of the fact that they have been reduced to "slums."
My conclusion is that in spite of their large numbers it appears that tufted puffin populations in the Gulf of Alaska probably have been reduced to a level below that of their undisturbed state.
Conclusions
Seabird numbers in the Gulf of Alaska are not static. Generally, they are probably much less abundant than they were when Bering made his voyage of discovery. There are, nonetheless, considerable numbers of seabirds breeding along the coasts of these waters. Some species show signs of recovery from past insults by man. With enlightened management there is still time to preserve the vast natural heritage that they represent and, in many cases, to improve their status.
In attempting to address a complicated subject in short space and a relatively narrow frame of reference, I have certainly erred a number of times. I would like to see the wealth of new data that will be derived from current work applied to this concept. An understanding of past population fluctuations and the underlying perturbations that they reflect is essential for managers faced with the problem of making good decisions on measures to mitigate the potential adverse impact of development.