AN IMPOSSIBLE PROGRAM
In the emotional atmosphere of the war period some astonishing economic propositions were accepted as if they were axiomatic truths. Notably was this the case in the discussion of Germany's program of peaceful penetration in the economic sphere. It was undoubtedly linked up with schemes of military aggression. There was wide discussion of the methods to be used to guard against Germany's commercial policy. Sometimes these proposals indicated the desire that those who opposed Germany should take a leaf from her dog-in-the-manger policy. Strange conceptions of international trade that suggest the mercantilism of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries were revived in order to guard against any attempt on the part of Germany to secure a privileged industrial position after the war. As early as 1916 there was the famous proposal of an anti-German economic league contemplated in the Paris resolutions of that date. In Great Britain the supporters of this policy also actively advocated a system of imperial preference by which special advantages would be given to countries within the bounds of the British Empire. The result of upholding any double-barreled policy of this type is described by the Edinburgh Review as impossible of realization.
"Even if Belgium, France, and Italy alone took that course, the whole policy of an economic boycott, or partial boycott, to prevent German expansion or to punish German crimes would fall to the ground. We cannot imprison Germany in an economic strait jacket if her territorial neighbors are willing to trade with her. As a matter of fact before the war the most important and the most expansive portion of German export trade was with the continent of Europe."
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
A great advance in aeroplane development was one of the most spectacular results of war activity. The military side of this development must be discussed in another place, but the fact that aeroplanes had to be constructed substantial enough to carry a large amount of explosives naturally brought up the whole question of the commercial side of aeroplane employment. Although the aeroplane has been developed to a remarkable extent for war purposes, it must not be taken for granted that every type of aeroplane has its use for peace. In the military machine regard has been paid rather to gun positions, bomb carrying capacity and performance than to economy in operation and large cargo space, which are the essential peace requirements. This aspect of the problem was discussed by F. Handley-Page in an article in the Fortnightly Review.
"The type of aeroplane for commercial work requires careful consideration and design. In estimating the value of a transport vehicle account must be taken of the respective proportions of the load that are and are not remunerative. A steam motor wagon that was only just able to transport the coke for its own consumption would be useless for transport work. The large quantity of fuel the aeroplane must carry makes this point an important one regarding it. It affects very largely the type of aeroplane that must be chosen for each duty.
"The total lift of a large bombing aeroplane of medium speed is about 20 lbs., while that of a small high-speed scout may not be more than about 8 to 10 lbs. per horse-power. From these lifts have to be deducted the weight per horse-power of the aeroplane structure and engines. These leave a margin of about 11 pounds per horse-power in the case of the large machine and of only about two to four pounds per horse-power in the case of the smaller and higher speed machine. From these margins have to be deducted the weight per horse-power of the pilot and of the fuel to be carried."
According to this expert's opinion there is little probability of using for commercial purposes the small high-powered aeroplane. But if large machines are used with a speed limit of 100 miles an hour and fitted with twin engines, Mr. Page thinks that such machines will have economic possibilities. Countries now far distant from one another can be brought close together. For example Australia will be within a week of London, and he thinks that passengers can be carried at the rate of about six cents a mile. If air transport is to be systematized he is in favor of strict state regulation:
"There must be no possible chance of the wildcat schemes of the early railway days recurring, nor must aircraft or their pilots be below a specified standard. The State must see that projects doomed to failure owing to lack of financial or technical backing are prevented from being placed before the public.
"Regulations must be drawn up which will insure that the machines cannot be used for the public service until they have received a certificate similar to that now issued by Lloyd's for ships. Pilots must not be allowed to fly machines conveying the public or mails, unless they have received a certificate equivalent to that issued to the master of a ship by the Board of Trade before he can take charge.