"A similar policy of reserve will probably be pursued by the banks of France, Germany, and Russia in the present contest. The Government of France has raised the maximum limit of the note circulation of the bank by nearly $1,000,000,000, but the increase will not be used except as additional currency may be required, owing to the restriction in other forms of credit and the special demand for notes in the districts where the armies are gathered.
"The suspension of specie payments does not convey to the banking community quite the same doleful warning of the unlimited issue of paper and its steady depreciation in gold which were conveyed by specie suspension in the United States in 1861 or by Austria-Hungary and Russia in the desperate contest of the Napoleonic wars. Monetary science is better understood at the present time than in those days."
GERMAN WAR FINANCE
Among all the belligerent powers Germany occupied the unique position of using the war as an excuse for not publishing national accounts. The sole guide to her expenditure must be looked for in the credit votes passed by the Reichstag. Using this method, it is estimated that Germany spent about $30,000,000 a day. To cover this expenditure there was a regular plan of national loan—in March and September. This was the method followed in all the four years of the war. During the intervening six months there was an issue of Treasury bills. The German people were, apparently, schooled to these regular demands with commendable promptness, but the Imperial Government adopted a policy of inflation in the hope that a speedy victory would bring fruits in the shape of an indemnity, and so the German people would avoid being called upon to bear war burdens. Taxation was introduced only reluctantly and at a later period, and merely for the purpose of meeting so-called normal civil expenditure and interest on war debt. The plan followed was to spare the middle classes as far as possible from additional taxation charges.
THE LOAN BUREAU SCHEME
The war loans have been, on paper, most successful. For example, the seventh loan of September, 1917, yielded $3,000,000,000; the eighth loan nearly $4,000,000,000. There was a large amount of ready money in the country and besides this all stocks of raw material have been realized. Large as the loans have been they have not been able to keep pace with the increase of expenditure. Out of the total amount of $30,000,000,000 about $20,000,000,000 have been covered by long-term loans. Of course, owing to the peculiar situation of Germany in relation to her allies, which were dependent upon her financial support, these loans have been raised by the German people themselves. The German Loan Bureaus were criticized at the beginning of the war, and German figures show that only about ten percent. of the national loans were involved in the Loan Bureau scheme. These Loan Bureaus, it was announced, would continue after the declaration of peace. According to the London Economist, Germany followed an easy and sure policy of war finance, although the same authority does not hesitate to use the terms "complete financial ruin" in connection with German post-war finance.
The whole subject of German inflation is difficult to analyze. The Economist works out a post-war expenditure of $5,000,000,000 a year against a revenue of a billion and a half. Its estimate of German inflation is contained in the following passage:
"To take note circulation alone is obviously misleading, particularly in view of the violent efforts that have been made, especially during the last year, to extend the use of the check, and in other ways to limit as far as possible the use of notes. For what these figures are worth, it may be said that the total note circulation of the country at the end of June (1918), including Reichsbank notes, State Bank notes, Treasury notes, and loan notes, stood at £1,030,000,000, as compared with £109,300,000 on July 23, 1914. Reichbank Reichsbank deposits, again, stood on June 30, at £459,100,000, as compared with £47,600,000 on July 23, 1914, while the deposits of the eight 'great' banks, even at the end of 1917, stood at £800,000,000, as compared with £250,000,000 at the end of 1914, £362,000,000 at the end of 1915, and £500,000,000 at the end of 1916."
In this connection it is interesting to give a summary of Germany's war expenses as reported in the London Economist:
"In his comparison of German war finance with ours, the Chancellor, in his Budget speech, made the following points: First, that German war expenditure is now £6,250,000—almost the same as ours—though our expenditure includes items (such as separation allowances) which are not included in the German figures. Second, that the whole amount of the German Votes of Credit (£6,200 millions) has been added to their war debt, 'because their taxation has not covered their peace expenditure in addition to their debt charge.' Third, the total amount of new taxation levied by them since the beginning of the war comes to £365 millions, against our £1,044 millions. Fourth, in a year's time they will have a deficit, comparing the revenue with the expenditure, of £385 millions at least. 'If that were our position,' the Chancellor added, 'I should certainly think that bankruptcy was not far from the British Government.' Fifth, with the exception of the war increment tax, 'scarcely any of the additional revenue has been obtained from the wealthier classes in Germany'."