"Obviously if Great Britain or any other country alone attempted to alter the standard price of gold, and therefore the value of the present sovereign (or its equivalent), the currency would be debased, instead of being enhanced. It would also in effect amount to a partial repudiation of national debt. A standard ceases to be a standard if one nation can arbitrarily alter it, but surely there can be no argument against the creation of a new standard sanctioned by the whole civilized world for their mutual advantage. If Great Britain and the United States were to proclaim their desire to adopt my scheme it is hardly likely that any country other than the Central Powers would fail to welcome it. Spain, for instance, has increased her gold reserve to about £80,000,000 and greatly enhanced the value of her currency thereby. Would she fail to grasp the happy chance of making this £120,000,000, and would any country continue to part with its gold at £4 per ounce when it could get £6 or £8?"
WAR'S EFFECT ON SILVER
Along with all other commodities, that cinderella of finance—silver—had a share in the general rise in prices. One of the reasons is the enormous falling off of silver production in Mexico, where one-third of the total world supply is produced; another is the great demand for silver. Prior to the war, the use of silver plate by the wealthy classes had largely fallen off; but the war, because of the rise in wages, brought about a largely increased demand for silver to be used in ornaments:
"The war has brought into the market a vast number of new buyers for ornaments, whose demand in the aggregate is estimated to more than compensate for the falling off in the purchases by the wealthy classes of silver plate. Wages everywhere, not merely in England, but practically all over the world, have advanced, and particularly in Western Europe; moreover, immense numbers of women, and even children, are being employed who were not employed before, and those who were employed before have a larger income, particularly amongst the wage earning classes, than has been the case in this country for many years past."
The use of silver in coinage, too, was notably increased. Gold disappeared in countries where gold coins were used; paper money and silver token money took its place. Another reason for the advance in silver is connected with the demand for the metal in eastern countries. According to the London Statist:
" ... About half the annual production of silver throughout the world is absorbed by the East, meaning principally India and China. It has to be borne in mind that prices in the East have advanced as well as in Europe and the two Americas, and, consequently, more token money is required there as well as here. Silver is the standard of value, and not token money at all, in China; and in India, while gold is nominally the standard of value, the rupee is the actual coin in which the Indian natives, as distinct from mere government officials, reckon their wealth. Now, as one result of the war, nearly all the governments forbid the export of gold; consequently, India requires a steadily increasing supply of silver, not merely to do the work that silver did before the war, but, in addition, to supply the void created by the prohibition of the export of gold."
STOCK EXCHANGE WAR
The accompanying diagram showing how military operations in Europe affected the average prices of fifty stocks, half industrial and half railway, was published in the New York Times Annalist:
The wider black area shows the high and low average prices of the twenty-five industrials included in the fifty, and the white area the corresponding figures for the twenty-five rails. The lines begin at a time when Germany was suffering severely from her failure at Verdun and from losses in men and territory from the great Allied Somme offensive. The subsequent rapid decline (November to February) embraces the period of Bethmann-Hollweg's sensational peace offensive, followed a few weeks later by Germany's intensified submarine warfare. The lowest point of all (December, 1917) was reached after Germany's successful counter-thrust for Cambrai, her "peace offensive" with the Bolsheviki at Brest-Litovsk, and the taking over of our railroads by the government.—Literary Digest, October 19, 1918.
A further indication of how military operations reacted on Stock Exchange quotations was shown in the decided improvement that took place since the end of July, 1918, after the Germans were pushed back in their drive towards Paris. The most direct way of measuring this influence is to take the quotations for the bonds and notes of the Allied Governments dealt in at the New York Stock Exchange since 1915: