If no influence worked in favor of the multiples of 15 in these experiments only one judgment in thirty would be 15 (3.33%) and only one in sixty, 30 or 60 (1.67%). For the probability of the occurrence of 15, 30, and 60 is 160 + 160 + 130 = 115, as is obvious from the fact that among sixty consecutive numbers (1 to 60) there are four which are multiples of 15. According to probability we should expect multiples of 15, 30, and 60 to occur 268 times among the 4014 male judgments and 292 times among the 4375 female judgments. As a matter of fact there are 1212 such judgments for the males, 1715 for the females. The probability that a male judgment is a multiple of 15, 30, or 60 is 0.3012 (probable error 0.0049); for a female judgment the probability is 0.39199 (probable error 0.0050).
These statistics indicate that the subjects are constantly and strongly influenced in favor of judgments which are simple fractions of a minute. Closer inspection of the tables gives some suggestion of the nature of this influence.
Comparison of the four intervals (Tables 5 and 6) with respect to the occurrence of simple fractions of a minute shows that the frequency of such numbers increases rapidly as the length of the interval increases. The various percentages of frequency for males and females and for the four intervals are again presented here for convenience of comparison.
| 18˝ | 36˝ | 72˝ | 108˝ | |
| Males | 20.32% | 29.57% | 34.70% | 36.16% |
| Females | 28.48 | 38.86 | 41.60 | 47.83 |
As is obvious from these figures both frequency and rate of increase are far higher for the females than for the males.
Examination of the percentages (totals) at the bottom of Tables 5 and 6 reveals another remarkable sex-difference; for the frequency of occurrence of 15 and its multiples regularly decreases for males from the 15 to the 60 class, whereas for females it regularly increases.
Undoubtedly the time-judgments of these experiments were strongly influenced by thought of the conventional time-unit, the minute, for in all quantitative work there are errors in favor of the standard of measurement and simple fractions thereof. In the present instance this tendency to favor the unit was strengthened, perhaps, by the giving of a half-minute interval as a standard for comparison at the beginning of the tests.
Two explanations of the sex-differences above mentioned are suggested by our study of the data. One is the fact that the females are less exact than the males; the other that they generally overestimate the intervals, whereas the males often underestimate them. One's estimate of an interval is determined partly by confidence of accuracy. The longer an interval the less we feel able to estimate it accurately, and, as a consequence, the more frequently it is judged as the same as the time-unit or a simple fraction of that unit. The females are less exact in their estimates than the males, and less exact for long than for short intervals, and as an accompaniment of their inexactitude we find the frequent occurrence of multiples of 15, 30, and 60.
But confidence of ability to estimate accurately must be considered in connection with the fact which suggests our second explanation, namely, that the female estimates are higher than the male. Tables 7 and 8 show that the females almost invariably overestimate the intervals rather largely, while the males sometimes underestimate considerably. The range of the male judgments is from 1 to 300, of the female from 1 to 400. Obviously the chance of occurrence of 15, 30, 60, and their multiples varies with the range. The greater the range the greater the probable frequency of 30 and 60 in comparison with 15. In random guessing the probabilities of the occurrence of 15, 30, and 60 for long and short intervals is the same, but our results show that this is not true in the case of these time-estimation judgments. It seems possible, therefore, that the sex-differences referred to are due to the fact that the intervals seem longer to the females, and that, therefore, a feeling of greater inexactitude than would be felt for shorter intervals leads to the choice of simple fractions of a minute more frequently than in the male judgments and more frequently for the long than for the short intervals.