Gentlemen,
It is now more than six months since I was honored with a line from you. I wrote you last on the 26th of April; since that time a solemn treaty of peace has been concluded, by the mediation of France, between the Porte and the Court of Petersburg. Though this may appear to leave Russia at liberty to assist Great Britain, I do not think you have anything in reality to apprehend from that quarter.
It is probable the German powers will soon be at peace, though it is not yet signed at Teschin. The effect of this will be to furnish Great Britain with a number of German troops, such as the free companies which are levied by different leaders in all German wars, and are dismissed when they end. These having once pursued the military life will the more readily engage, especially when tempted with good pay and promises of plunder. The King of Prussia and the Elector of Saxony are from interest inclined to our cause; but there are so many intermediate considerations, which retard an open declaration, that it is not possible to say when that will take place.
The House of Austria is in its politics inclined to England, and the Empress is personally so. The Emperor I think has different sentiments, but he is not the Sovereign. The Grand Duke, though much our friend, must follow the steps of his mother.
Spain, Portugal, and Naples are in perfect harmony. The first is more able to reduce Great Britain to terms of peace, by a full acknowledgment of our independency and sovereignty, than any power in Europe. Her ministers are able, her credit great, her treasury well supplied, her finances well administered, her commerce increasing, her fleet amounting to fifty sail of the line, and a proportionable number of frigates, fit for immediate service. In a word she is in a state to begin at a moment’s warning a powerful war, and continue it for three years without borrowing a sol. She has made a noble motion to conclude what is stipulated in the treaty of alliance, and as I have not received one word of answer to my letters to Congress of the 10th of February, and 4th of April 1778, it is not easy for me to know how to act. I wish always to receive the instructions of my constituents, that I may pursue them to the best of my ability.
The States-General have at length resolved to grant convoys to their merchant ships, and support their commerce against the pretensions of England. Sweden and Denmark have determined the same; and all these governments are augmenting their naval force, so as to support these resolutions. I imagine this will, by degrees, let in the commerce of America, to which these powers will give every protection they can, short of open hostilities, and Great Britain will be obliged to wink at it.
In England the discontents in the army and navy are little short of disaffection. The Ministers are pursued with unremitting acrimony, and supported by the king with proportionable perseverance. The examination of the sea and land officers before the House of Commons, in the inquiry now making into the conduct of the Howes, with the correspondence between the Ministers and Generals, prove very satisfactorily, that both the Ministers and Generals exerted their utmost in the war against us; and that it did not fail from their fault, but from the impracticability of the attempt. General Grey’s decided opinion is, that the war can never succeed. Captain Hammond spoke highly of the behavior and utility of our row gallies and fire flats. The new recruiting scheme in England is very unproductive; they have not yet raised six thousand of the fifteen thousand they expected. Their expense is enormous, and the produce of their taxes, though they are increased in number, greatly deficient. Scotland is irritated by the countenance given to the Roman Catholics, and their highland levies have twice mutinied, so that there is little probability of that country, however hostile, supplying any more troops.
Ireland is nearly in the state we were in six years ago. The people are supplying themselves with arms, meeting and exercising, and the government not venturing to interpose. They have entered into a nonimportation agreement, and their spirit is in a train towards independency, which nothing but the most wise and healing measures will stop. General Clinton has thrice demanded his recall, and Lord Cornwallis will probably command in his place.
On the contrary, there is not the smallest abatement of the hostile intentions against us in the king and his Ministers. Nor will a change, if the king should be forced to it, make any difference, but that probably those intentions would be carried into execution with more wisdom. Our alliance with France has united all parties, in the resolution of prosecuting the war against us to the last extremity. Almost the whole of the French commerce, having fallen a prey to their privateers, has really enriched the nation and rendered the war popular. Their late successes, especially in India, have given them credit for this year and resources for the next, great and unexpected; the peace in Germany will supply them with men. Lord Shelburne’s plan is, and he will make a point of it should he come in, to prevail upon Prince Ferdinand to take the command in America; trusting that his abilities, with the confidence and graciousness of his character among the British, as well as the German soldiery, will overcome all difficulties.
But what they rely upon most is the derangement of our finances, the depreciation of our paper, the divisions and discontents excited among us by the bad ambition of some, the criminal intrigues of others, and the unbounded avarice of many. They flatter themselves, that what has happened in all countries and at all times will be our fate, that public defaulters will, by the weight of their acquisitions, obtain an ascendency which will either bring us to ruin by the prevalence of the evil, or betray us to our former domination, in order to keep possession with impunity of what they have acquired. If, by these instruments, they can loosen the ties, which by knitting the people and their leaders together have hitherto rendered them invincible, and withdraw their confidence from those who originally planned and have ably conducted them through this wonderful revolution, they hope to effect what they hitherto have attempted in vain,—to subjugate those Quos neque Tydides, nec Larissæus Achilles, non anni domuere decem, non mille carinæ. As far as I can learn, there is no probability of this Court’s supplying any money. But of this you will be better informed by your Minister. This letter I expect will go by the Chevalier de la Luzerne, who succeeds M. Gerard. M. de la Luzerne’s family is among the best and most honorable of this country. He has been Minister to the Court of Munich, and is a gentleman of honor and ability, insomuch that the Court of Versailles seems to me in nothing to have shown its wisdom more, than in sending at this important moment a Minister, whose conduct is likely to correspond with his rank and character, and who will not descend to anything that may either dishonor himself or disturb us.