It gives me pain to mention what regards myself so often; but Congress will permit me to repeat, that if it should not please them to recall me, it is absolutely necessary that some provision should be made for the support of my mission, independent of Dr Franklin. If, in the meantime, the State of Virginia should reimburse me what I have advanced for them, that will be a fund, and I will immediately give Congress advice of it. I must also beg, that Congress will fix a sum for my expenses, both that I may not exceed what is thought reasonable, nor have my time and attention employed in keeping accurate accounts of expenses, which I never did do, nor ever shall to my own satisfaction, or I believe to that of any one else. So that if this is expected, it will expose me to censure, which I wish to avoid.
The little time that remains from daily attention to public business, and in collecting and digesting what relates to it, I wish to devote to private correspondence and reading. I have, therefore, thought it always sufficient to proportion my expenses in general to my situation and means, without a minute attention to them in detail. Whatever Congress fixes as reasonable will be the rule of my conduct, and it will spare both them and myself a great deal of, as I conceive, unnecessary trouble.
I cannot learn with any certainty, what probability there is of any other powers entering next year into the present war. On that subject, your Minister here, as his situation gives him the means, will furnish you with earlier and surer information than it is possible for me to obtain. But the following are nearly the plans of the French and British cabinets for the next campaign. Fourteen ships of seventyfour guns, and 8000 troops, are to be sent from hence to the West Indies. The twelve expected home with Count d’Estaing, being refitted with eight new ones, added to the sixteen remaining of those which form the present fleet, and fifteen Spanish ships, will make fiftyone sail, which are to convoy fifty thousand troops from Brest, where they are all to be collected, to whatever part of the coast of England is fixed upon for a descent. By this disposition of the fleet and army, it is expected that the delay and disappointments which render this campaign abortive will be avoided. The bulk of the Spanish fleet is to secure the Mediterranean and press Gibraltar, while the army continues its approaches by land.
The English cabinet are resolved to send all the troops they can possibly collect, which they say will amount to 8 or 10,000 against you, and stand upon the defensive at home. Their situation, however, is not a little embarrassing. The Irish nation are so generally determined upon having a free trade, that the Court was obliged to allow it to be inserted in the address of both Houses, that a free trade is their right and they must have it. To support this, there are, besides the unanimous voice of the people, upwards of 15,000 men, in volunteer companies actually in arms, without the permission or control of government. To delay or refuse the granting of free trade, will endanger a general and most formidable insurrection in that kingdom. To grant it, will produce commotions of no less magnitude in England, of which they have already had some fearful examples in and about Manchester. These insurrections, whenever they happen, will be exasperated by great and real distress. For the fact is, that if it be refused to Ireland, that country will be undone, and if it be granted, the woollen and other manufactures of England will be ruined. In such a situation, it is difficult to imagine a medium by which the violences will be prevented, that must otherwise call for the troops at home, which they have destined for us.
In Scotland the discontent is such, that a highland regiment actually seized the castle of Edinburgh, and shut the gates against their officers. This mutiny has been quelled, but the spirit that produced it is not altered.
The inactivity of this campaign has left their credit unimpaired, and their fleets have generally got in safe from all quarters. They will, therefore, find money for the next campaign, but it is not probable, that with all their efforts they will be able to equip a fleet equal to that which will go against them. Without some accident, therefore, they must either suffer the French army to land, or hazard an unequal combat, which, if they are overcome, will leave their coast at the mercy of invaders. To add to their counsels, already enfeebled by the death of the only man of ability and business among them, Lord Suffolk, they have put Lord Stormont, the most insufficient man in the kingdom, into his place. Such is the present situation and prospect of things in Europe.
Congress will, I hope, consider, that various events may change or delay the plans above stated, and not let it impeach the veracity of the intelligence, that they are not executed. Much, for example, will depend upon Count d’Estaing’s movements and success, which were not foreseen when these plans were formed. His expedition is entirely of his own planning, and, therefore, could not be taken into consideration here.
I enclose a copy of the Spanish ultimatum, which by mistake was omitted being sent sometime ago. The following passage in the manifesto, published by the Court of Great Britain, in answer to that of France, seems to me a proof how little she herself expects from the war with us.
“Two years have not passed since the day the rebels declared their criminal resolution of shaking off the yoke of the mother country, and this term has been filled with the events of a bloody and obstinate war. Success has been balanced, but the army of the king, which occupies the most important maritime cities, has continued to menace the interior provinces. The English flag predominates in all the American seas.”
When all they can boast of, as the fruit of two years’ bloody and obstinate war, in which, though they do not choose to say it, all Europe knows they have expended forty millions of treasure, and sixty thousand lives, is a balanced success, and the possession of a few maritime towns, from whence they threaten us, it is plain enough, that they themselves have not a hope of success. Their war, therefore, is a war of desperate vengeance, which nothing can justify.