The king being absent in the review of his troops, I have only had some conversation with his Minister relative to their beginning a commerce with you in their own bottoms. This I have reason to think will take effect; but there seems to be a system of great caution here, which will cramp whatever they attempt.
I have good reasons for assuring you, that Russia will send no troops against us. The consequence of the Prince of Hesse’s conduct is beginning to be a lesson to the other German princes, so that it is not probable they will draw any more supplies from them. The country of Hesse is depopulating so fast from the apprehension of being forced into this service, that the women are obliged to cultivate the lands. At present, therefore, the foreign resources of Great Britain seem to be exhausted, nor is there any human probability of their reinstating their army, should this campaign materially diminish it, except it be with Catholics from Ireland. I have a plan for rendering that of little effect, which I hope will succeed.
Upon your maintaining your ground this campaign, the question of acknowledging your independence will become very serious next winter among the European powers; but until the events of this summer are decided, their conduct will remain the same, and no open act of interference is likely to take place. Till that time too they should not wish to receive commissioners, as it subjects them to the complaints of the English Court.
A transaction has lately happened in England, which, notwithstanding appearances speak otherwise, makes me believe that our enemies expect some further and considerable assistance from Hesse. It is their paying an old rejected claim to the Landgrave of £41,000. I know the British Court too well to believe they would do this from any other motive, than the expectation of future favors, and to soften the sense of shame and loss, which, already sustained by the Landgrave, would prevent him from furnishing them further. But whether the object is merely to quicken him in supplying the stipulated recruits, or to get some of his old regiments, I cannot learn. A letter, which I have read, from the agent of that Prince at the Court of Great Britain to his Minister, upon the very subject of this claim, grounds it only on the necessities of England for troops to carry on this war, without mentioning that he had stipulated anything specially on his part in return. You may, however, depend upon my endeavors to get the most speedy and accurate information on this subject, and to raise every obstacle that can come from this and the imperial Court.
I expect to have finished what I can do here in ten days, when I shall set out on my return to Paris, whence the conveyance being safer, I shall write you more particularly.
I have the honor to be, &c.
ARTHUR LEE.
P. S. I see by the English papers, that a motion by Lord Chatham for an address of the House of Lords to the king, to begin an accommodation by a cessation of hostilities, and an offer of a full redress of grievances, supported by Lords Shelburne and Camden, was rejected by 100 to 28. This motion was made on the 30th of last month, and the chief objection on the ministerial part was, that it would stop the career of their success that must soon reduce you.
TO THE COMMISSIONERS AT PARIS.