"As to supporting their credit in commerce, it is attended with considerable, though not insurmountable difficulties. They are of two kinds, the want of sufficient commodities for remittances, and the risk of transporting them. North America abounds in valuable commodities, such as fish, oil, lumber, provisions of flesh and corn, iron, tobacco, and naval stores, peltry, indigo, potash, and other articles, all of which have greatly diminished since the war; the laborers formerly employed in producing them having been often called to the field, and by other effects of the war been prevented from regularly following their usual occupations. Of some of these articles America still produces more than is necessary for her own consumption, but the risk of transporting them to Europe renders her remittances very uncertain. The asylum, which all British armed vessels find in the ports of Portugal, enables them to cruise very conveniently and with great advantage off the Western Islands, and other situations proper for annoying vessels from thence to France, Spain, or the Mediterranean. Hence it is that the trade from America to St Eustatia has of late so greatly increased, it being carried on principally in small, fast sailing vessels, that draw but little water, and that the chief remittances to Europe have been in bills of exchange instead of produce.
"With respect to the protection of national industry, I take it for granted that it will always flourish where it is lucrative, and not discouraged, which was the case in North America when I left it; every man being then at liberty, by the law, to cultivate the earth as he pleased, to raise what he pleased, to manufacture as he pleased, and to sell the produce of his labor to whom he pleased, and for the best prices, without any duties or impositions whatsoever. I have indeed no apprehensions whatever on this subject: I believe there are no people more industrious than those of America, and whoever recurs to their population, their former exports, and their present productions amidst the horrors of fire and sword, will be convinced of it.
By what Means, or what Branches of Commerce, will the States of America have it in their Power to indemnify Spain, whenever this Power may second the Views and Operations of the Americans?
"America will indemnify Spain in two ways, by fighting the enemy of Spain, and by commerce. Your Excellency will be pleased to remark that Spain as well as America is now at war with Britain, and therefore that it is the interest of both to support and assist each other against the common enemy. It cannot be a question whether Britain will be more or less formidable if defeated or victorious in America; and there can be no doubt but that every nation, interested in the reduction of her power, will be compensated for any aids they may afford America, by the immediate application of those aids to that express purpose at the expense of American blood.
"Your Excellency's well known talents save me the necessity of observing, that it is the interest of all Europe to join in breaking down the exorbitant power of a nation, which arrogantly claims the ocean as her birthright, and considers every advantage in commerce, however acquired by violence, or used with cruelty, as a tribute justly due to her boasted superiority in arts and in arms.
"By establishing the independence of America, the empire of Britain will be divided, and the sinews of her power cut. Americans, situated in another hemisphere, intent only on the cultivation of a country more than sufficient to satisfy their desires, will remain unconnected with European politics, and not being interested in their objects, will not partake in their dissensions. Happy in having for their neighbors a people distinguished for love of justice and of peace, they will have nothing to fear, but may flatter themselves that they and their posterity will long enjoy all the blessings of that peace, liberty, and safety, for which alone they patiently endure the calamities incident to the cruel contest they sustain.
"While the war continues, the commerce of America will be inconsiderable; but on the restoration of peace it will soon become very valuable and extensive. So great is the extent of country in North America yet to be cultivated, and so inviting to settlers, that labor will very long remain too dear to admit of considerable manufactures. Reason and experience tell us, that when the poor have it in their power to gain affluence by tilling the earth, they will refuse the scanty earnings which manufacturers may offer them. From this circumstance it is evident, that the exports from America will consist of raw materials, which other nations will be able to manufacture for them at a cheaper rate than they can themselves. To those who consider the future and progressive population of that country, the demands it will have for the manufactures and productions of Europe, as well to satisfy their wants, as to gratify their luxury, will appear immense, and far more than any one kingdom in it can supply. Instead of paying money for fish and many other articles as heretofore, Spain will then have an opportunity of obtaining them in exchange for her cloths, silks, wines, and fruits; notwithstanding which, it is proper to observe, that the commerce of the American States will forever procure them such actual wealth, as to enable them punctually to repay whatever sums they may borrow.
How far it may be convenient for these States to furnish Ships of War, Timber, and other Articles for the King's Arsenals, without Delay, and, if in their Power, on what Terms?
"I am much at a loss to determine at present, and therefore will by no means give your Excellency my conjectures for intelligence.
"It is certain, that in ordinary times, America can build ships as good, and cheaper than any other people, because the materials cost them less. The ships of war now in her service, as to strength and construction, are not exceeded by any on the ocean. On this subject I will write to America for information, and give your Excellency the earliest notice of it. Naval stores, and particularly masts and spars, may certainly be had there, and of the best quality, and I doubt not but that the Americans would carry them to the Havana or New Orleans, though I suspect, their being in a manner destitute of proper convoys for the European trade, would render them backward in bringing them to Spain, on terms equal to the risk of capture, on the one hand, and the expectations of purchasers on the other.