France, at present, enjoys a large share of the trade to the Levant. England has enjoyed a share too, and wishes, no doubt, to revive it. The Emperor and the Empress, if they succeed in their views of throwing open the Danube, Black Sea, and Archipelago, will take away from France and England a great part of this trade; but it is not likely that England will join with France in any opposition to the Emperor and Empress.
In order to judge of the object, which the two Empires have in view, we should look a little into the geography of those countries.
The project of setting at liberty the whole country of ancient Greece, Macedonia, and Illyricum, and erecting independent Republics in those famous seats, however splendid it may appear in speculation, is not likely to be seriously entertained by the two Empires, because it is impracticable. The Greeks of this day, although they are said to have imagination and ingenuity, are corrupted in their morals to such a degree, as to be a faithless, perfidious race, destitute of courage, as well as of those principles of honor and virtue, without which nations can have no confidence in one another, nor be trusted by others.
The project of conquering the Provinces of Albania, Romelia, Wallachia, Moldavia, and Little Tartary, from the Turks, and dividing them between the two Empires, may be more probable; but the Turks, in Asia and Europe together, are very powerful, and, if thoroughly awakened, might make a great resistance; so that it is most probable, the two Imperial Courts would be content, if they could obtain by negotiation, or by arms, the free navigation of the Danube, Black Sea, and Archipelago. This freedom alone would produce a great revolution in the commerce of Europe. The river Don or Tanais, with its branches, flows through the Ukraine, and a considerable part of the Russian dominions, into the Black Sea. The Danube flows very near Trieste, through the Kingdom of Hungary, and then through a Turkish Province into the Black Sea. If, therefore, the Black Sea and the Danube only were free, a communication would be immediately opened between Russia and Hungary quite to Trieste, to the great advantage of both Empires. But if, at the same time, the passage of the Dardanelles was laid open, all the Levant trade would be opened to the two Empires, and might be carried to Trieste, either by the Danube, or through the Archipelago and the Gulf of Venice. This would be such an accession of wealth, commerce, and naval power to the two Empires, as France is jealous of, and may be drawn into a war to prevent.
It is a question how the King of Prussia will act. It is the general opinion, that, as he is advanced in years, loves and enjoys his laurels and his ease, and cannot hope to gain anything by the war, he will be neuter. If he is, the issue cannot be foreseen. The Emperor is vastly powerful, and his preparations are immense. Perhaps France may not think it prudent to declare war. I should be sorry to see her again involved in a war, especially against the principles she has lately espoused with so much glory and advantage.
For my own part, I think nature wiser than all the Courts and States in the world, and, therefore, I wish all her seas and rivers upon the whole globe free, and am not at all surprised at the desire of the two Empires to set those near them at liberty.
I think, however, that whatever turn these negotiations may take, they cannot directly affect us, although we may be remotely interested in the freedom of the Levant trade, and of the seas and rivers in the neighborhood of it.
I have the honor to be, &c.
JOHN ADAMS.