I have spent the whole forenoon in conversation with the Duc de la Vauguyon. He thinks that England wishes to revive her trade to the Levant, to Smyrna, Aleppo, &c. and her carrying trade in Italy; and although she might be pleased to see France involved in a war with the Emperor and Empress, yet he thinks her funds are not in a condition to afford subsidies to either, and, therefore, that she will be perfectly neutral. Quere, however, whether if by a subsidy or a loan of a million or two a year, she could make France spend eight or ten millions, she would not strive hard to do it? The Duke thinks, that France will proceed softly, and endeavor, if possible, to avert the furious storm that threatens, and to compose the disputes of the three Empires, if possible; but she will never suffer such a usurpation as the conquest of the Turkish Provinces in Europe. France will certainly defend Constantinople. He thinks that the Empress of Russia has not revenues, and cannot get cash to march and subsist vast armies, and to transport great fleets, and that the Emperor has not revenues to support a long war.

This is, however, a serious business, and France lays it so much to heart, and looks upon the chance of her being obliged to arm, as so probable, that I presume this to be the principal motive of her refusal to lend us two or three millions of livres more.

As to our West India questions, the Duke assures me, that the French Ministry, particularly the Count de Vergennes, are determined to do everything they can consistent with their own essential interests, to favor and promote the friendship and commerce between their country and ours. That they, especially the Count, are declared enemies of the French fiscal system, which is certainly the most ruinous to their commerce, and intend to do everything they can to make alterations to favor commerce; but no change can be made in this, without affecting their revenues, and making voids, failures, and deficiencies, which they cannot fill up. They must, therefore, proceed softly. That France would favor the commerce between Portugal and America, because it would tend to draw off that kingdom from her dependence on England. That England, by her commercial treaty with the Portuguese, in 1703, has turned them into an English Colony, made them entirely dependent, and secured a commerce with them of three millions value. France would be glad to see this, or as much of it as possible, turned to America.

The Duke agrees fully with me in the maxim, that those Colonies will grow the most in wealth, improvement, population, and every sort of prosperity, which are allowed the freest communication with us, and that we shall be allowed to carry lumber, fish, and live stock, to their islands, but that the export of their sugars to us, he thinks, must be in their own ships, because they are afraid of our becoming the carriers of all their commerce, because they know and say, that we can do it cheaper than they can. These sentiments are different from those, which he mentioned to me a few days ago, when he said, the West India trade with us must be carried on in French bottoms.

The Duke said, the English had been trying to deceive us, but were now developing their true sentiments. They pretended, for awhile, to abolish the navigation act and all distinctions, to make one people with us again, to be friends, brothers, &c. in hopes of drawing us off from France, but not finding success, they were now showing their true plan. As to the pretended system of Shelburne, of a universal free commerce, although he thought it would be for the good of mankind in general, yet, for an English Minister, it was the plan of a madman, for it would be the ruin of that nation. He did not think Shelburne was sincere in it; he only meant an illusion to us. Here I differ from the Duke, and believe, that the late Ministry were very sincere towards us, and would have made a treaty with us, at least to revive the universal trade between us, upon a liberal plan. This doctrine of ruin, from that plan, to the English, has been so much preached of late in England by the French and the American refugees, who aim at establishments in Canada and Nova Scotia, and by the old Butean administration and their partisans, that I do not know whether any Ministry could now support a generous plan. But if Temple, Thurlow, Shelburne, Pitt, &c. should come in, I should not despair of it. It is true, the Shelburne administration did encourage the ideas of cordial, perfect friendship, of entire reconciliation of affections, of making no distinction between their people and ours, especially between the inhabitants of Canada and Nova Scotia and us, and this, with the professed purpose of destroying all seeds of war between us. These sentiments were freely uttered by Fitzherbert, Oswald, Whiteford, Vaughan, and all who had the confidence of that Ministry; and in these sentiments they were, I believe, very sincere. And they are, indeed, the only means of preventing a future war between us and them, and so sure as they depart from that plan, so sure, in less than fifteen years, perhaps less than seven, there will break out another war. Quarrels will arise among fishermen, between inhabitants of Canada and Nova Scotia and us, and between their people and ours in the West Indies, in our ports, and in the ports of the three kingdoms, which will breed a war in spite of all we can do to prevent it. France sees this and rejoices in it, and I know not whether we ought to be sorry; yet I think we ought to make it a maxim to avoid all wars, if possible; and to take care that it is not our fault if we cannot. We ought to do everything, which the English will concur in, to remove all causes of jealousies, and kill all the seeds of hostility as effectually as we can; and to be upon our guard to prevent the French, Spaniards, and Dutch, from sowing the seeds of war between us, for we may rely upon it they will do it if they can.

I have the honor to be, &c.

JOHN ADAMS.

TO ROBERT R. LIVINGSTON.

Paris, July 18th, 1783.

Sir,