I left Amsterdam on the 7th instant, (Mr Adams having gone from thence for Paris on the 2d, upon a special call of which he will, doubtless, give your Excellency the earliest notice) and arrived in this city on the 25th, very much indisposed. I thought it expedient to take my route to this city, through Cologne, Frankfort, and Leipsic, though not the common or shortest one, to avoid passing through Hanover, lest my motions should have been watched in Holland, and notice given of my passing through Hanover, which might have brought on the seizure of my person and papers.
I have been unfortunate in having my carriage overthrown and broken in pieces, between Leipsic and Berlin; happily, however, no other injury was sustained. I mention this circumstance, because it not only lays me under the necessity of purchasing another here, (for there is no travelling in these countries tolerably without a private carriage) but it will detain me several days extraordinary. Though I am not quite well, I shall set off as soon as the carriage I have bought can be properly fitted for so long a journey, for no less than fifteen hundred of our miles are still before me; and the route far from being the most pleasant in Europe, yet I should go through it with much alacrity, if I had well grounded hopes that at the end, I should find matters in the state we wish them to be.
As I have no faith on the one hand, that the present mediation of the Emperor and Empress will issue in a pacification, general or partial, so, on the other, I as little expect that it will suddenly light up other wars. It is probable, nothing of the latter kind can take place, without this kingdom having a portion in it, and I have not yet been able to learn, that there is the least expectation of the sort here, which most commonly goes before the act. I suppose, therefore, that the belligerent powers will still continue belligerent, and that the mediators will hope for a more favorable opportunity to renew their mediation, and to make their particular advantage of the conflict. It seems to me it has been accepted by them, (America only excepted, to whom it has not been tendered) rather out of respect, or to avoid giving offence to the mediators, or to seek an advantage by discovering a ready disposition to hearken to every proposition having the least possible tendency to bring about a pacification.
Not one of the belligerent powers, I believe, has an expectation, or a sincere wish that a pacification will, or should be brought about at present. Spain wishes to possess herself of Gibraltar and of the Floridas; can she now hope that these will be ceded to her? Does she not flatter herself, that by the continuance of the war, Britain will become so enfeebled, that they may be wrested from her? That having once obtained them by conquest, she will easily retain them at a peace? France wishes to establish herself, in the place of Britain, the dominant power of Europe; to this end, she sees that it is necessary to snatch the trident from the hand of Britain, and to wield it herself. To effect this, she knows well, that America must be supported in her independence. But is the time yet come, when she can reasonably hope, that both the mediators are prepared to make this last measure a proposition in their mediation, or Britain to acknowledge it?
Great Britain, in my opinion, wishes not to make a separate peace with America, that she may be able to exert her whole force against the House of Bourbon, as many of her popular leaders have frequently expressed themselves. This would be humbling herself in a point on which she is most obstinately fixed. Much sooner would she humble herself before her ancient enemies, provided she could flatter herself, that by doing this, she might make a separate peace with them, and be thereby at liberty to direct her whole force against the United States. In this case she would cherish the hope, that America seeing herself forsaken by her new allies, and exposed singly to the whole power of Britain, might either be induced once more to submit to her domination, or would become an easy conquest, in part at least. So little wisdom, it is probable, experience has taught them. But is there the least hope for Britain, that her ancient enemies are prepared to give up their new friends? Does not their own safety and importance in the political system, absolutely depend upon supporting the independence of our country?
Of Holland or the United Provinces, I know not what to say. They can scarce be ranked among the belligerent powers. The objects of Holland are peace, with that freedom to her commerce, which she had a right to demand in virtue of treaties, which Britain has annulled; as also restitution of her conquered territories, and reparation of the destruction committed upon her navigation. Britain will not gratify Holland in any of these respects, unless she grants the aids claimed, and thereby plunges herself into the war against the House of Bourbon and America, which she can never do. Thus a partial pacification between them is not likely to take place.
America will not consent that the independence of her empire shall be brought into question, or that her rights and claims shall be litigated and adjusted in a Congress, in which she is not properly represented by her Minister. Nevertheless, these things will, I am persuaded, be attempted, and I fear they will not meet with a very vigorous opposition from a quarter, which we have a right to expect should stoutly oppose them.[18] Should a Congress be assembled in this half matured state of things, is there any reasonable ground to hope that the professed design of it, a general pacification, can be accomplished? The determination of such bodies, are, however, so frequently influenced by improper motives, that he who concludes that such a matter cannot be the result merely because it ought not to be, may find himself egregiously deceived in the end.
Thus I have attempted to give a sketch of my sentiments relative to the business of a mediation; but Congress will probably receive a much more particular and satisfactory account of it from a much more able hand, who has besides better information, and is now more immediately connected with it. I have said I should go through the fatigues of my journey with much alacrity, if I had well grounded hopes, that at the end I should find matters in the state we wish them to be. I do not form any strong conclusion from the answer of the Empress to the United Provinces. What could they expect from her when they had so shamefully neglected any preparations necessary even for their own defence, and seemed not to be half decided about making any. But the following memorial of the French Ambassador at her Court, taken in conjunction with the present retirement of Count Panin, her Prime Minister, seems to denote an essential change in the system of the Court of St Petersburg.
"St Petersburg, 12th of June. Friday last the Minister of the Court of Versailles had a conference with Count Osterman, Vice Chancellor of the Empire, and delivered him a memorial of the following import.
'Representations upon the continual proceedings of the English against the commerce and navigation of the neutral nations, upon the little activity of these last to prevent these arbitrary proceedings, and to support the principles of their declarations made to the belligerent powers, and the convention of neutrality, which has been concluded between them; upon the prejudice which will naturally result therefrom to all nations; and upon the desire which the King his master has, that it should be remedied by the vigorous co-operation of her Imperial Majesty; seeing that otherwise the said association of neutrality would be turned but to the benefit of the enemies of France, and that the King who has himself to the present time, exactly conformed to the principles of the above mentioned declaration and convention of neutrality, will find himself, though with regret, under the indispensable necessity of changing in like manner the system which he has hitherto pursued respecting the commerce and navigation of neutrals, and to order and regulate that according to the conduct which the English themselves pursue, and which has been so patiently borne by the neutral nations; objects upon the subject matter of which, his Majesty has nevertheless thought, that he ought to suspend his final resolution, until he should have concerted measures with her Imperial Majesty upon this business.'"