TO ROBERT R. LIVINGSTON.
St Petersburg, July 8th, 1783.
Sir,
After the departure of her Imperial Majesty for Fredericksham, as mentioned in my last, the Vice Chancellor communicated to the foreign Ministers the information, that their Imperial Majesties had concluded an alliance offensive and defensive against the Porte. Thus it is now become certain, that the Emperor will take a part in this new war; the consequence of which will be, as I have supposed in some of my former letters, a general war on the continent of Europe.
A courier has been sent from hence with a similar communication as above, to the Courts of Berlin and Versailles, which Courts having been apprehensive of such an event, are, doubtless, prepared to meet it, and oppose themselves to the execution of the project of the Imperial Courts, which is nothing short of what was supposed to be in agitation, by my letter of the 30th of March, 1782, particularly by the first sentence of it relative to that subject, to which I beg leave again to refer you for more particular information. Last Saturday, a courier arrived from Versailles for the French Minister, which was sent from thence in consequence of the same matter being communicated there by the Minister of the Emperor, that from this Court had not then arrived. I am told his Most Christian Majesty expresses in a firm tone his surprise at the Empress's seizing upon the Crimea, and demands an explanation upon that subject, concluding, however, with an offer of his mediation between her Imperial Majesty and the Porte for settling their differences and pretensions. But it is evident the sword alone must decide these.
Sometime in last February, France having information of the project formed against the Porte, remonstrated in strong terms against it to the Emperor, upon which, as is said, he gave full assurances that he had not any such design as was imputed to him. This gave rise to the doubts, which have been entertained, whether he would take a part in the war against the Turks, which seemed to be the point upon which a general war upon the continent would depend. For if Russia alone had attacked the Turks, the powers whose interest it is to support them, would have, probably, confined themselves to secret succors. Their own safety will now oblige them to make powerful diversions in their favor. Not only France and Prussia have a deep interest to prevent the aggrandizement of the House of Austria, but many of the Electors and Provinces of Germany also, in order to preserve their own independence and liberties, which are ever in danger from powerful and ambitious Emperors. Hence we may see some of these allied with those two principal powers, to support the Turks against the formidable alliance of the Imperial Courts. Great Britain will remain neuter, rejoicing to see France engaged in an expensive continental war. Or if a favorable occasion should arise, she may take a part in it towards the close, to avenge herself for the part France has taken in our revolution. Thank God, we have a world to ourselves, and may rest in peace while the calamities of war are laying waste and desolating this continent. We may derive special advantages from it, as it will, probably, augment the emigrations of that most useful class of men, the peasants of Germany, into America.
Since my last, a Nuncio from the Pope has arrived here, coming from Poland. Having had no account of the definitive treaty, I remain in statu quo.
I have the honor to be, &c.
FRANCIS DANA.