This invitation is imputable to the late news from England, and the grant of six millions by France was probably accelerated by it. Both Courts are watching and jealous of us. We are at peace with Spain, and she neither will nor indeed can grant us a present subsidy. Why then should we be anxious for a treaty with her, or make sacrifices to purchase it? We cannot now treat with her on terms of equality, why therefore not postpone it? It would not perhaps be wise to break with her; but delay is in our power, and resentment ought to have no influence.
Time would secure advantages to us, which we should now be obliged to yield. Time is more friendly to young than to old nations, and the day will come when our strength will insure our rights. Justice may hold the balance and decide, but if unarmed will for the most part be treated like a blind woman. There is no doubt that Spain requires more cessions than England, unless extremely humbled, can consent to. France knows and fears this. France is ready for a peace, but not Spain. The King's eyes are fixed on Gibraltar. The Spanish finances indeed are extremely mismanaged, and I may say pillaged. If England should offer us peace on the terms of our treaty with France, the French Court would be very much embarrassed by their alliance with Spain, and as yet we are under no obligations to persist in the war to gratify this Court. It is not certain what England will do, nor ought we to rely on the present promising appearances there; but can it be wise to instruct your Commissioners to speak only as the French Ministers shall give them utterance? Let whatever I write about the French and their Ambassador here be by all means kept secret. Marbois gleans and details every scrap of news. His letters are very minute, and detail names and characters.
Sweden is leaning towards us, and it will not be long before the Dutch become our allies. Under such circumstances, Spain ought not to expect such a price as the Mississippi for acknowledging our independence.
As it is uncertain when I shall again have so good an opportunity of conveying a letter to you as the present, I have been very particular in this. The facts might perhaps have been more methodically arranged, but I thought it best to state them as they arose; and though some of them separately considered do not appear very important, yet when viewed in connexion with others, they will not be found wholly uninteresting.
You will readily perceive on reading this letter, that parts of it relate to Mr Morris's department. I hope he will excuse my not repeating them in a particular letter to him, especially as he will readily believe, that the length of this, and the cyphers used in it, have fatigued me a good deal.
All the cyphers in this letter are those in which I correspond with Mr Morris, and the only ones I have received from him. They were brought by Major Franks and marked No. 1. Several of my former letters to Mr Thompson and you mentioned, that his cypher was not to be depended upon. The copy of it, brought by Mr Barclay, which is the only copy I have received of the original by Major Franks, having passed through the post office, came to my hands with marks of inspection on the cover.
I received, the 12th of April, a packet of newspapers, which I believe was from your office. It was brought to Bilboa by Mr Stockholm; but not a single line or letter from America accompanied it.
On the back of the packet there was this endorsement, "Bilboa, April 3d, 1782, brought and forwarded by your Excellency's very humble servant Andrew Stockholm." Notwithstanding this, it was marked Paris by the post office, and charged with postage accordingly, viz. one hundred and six reals of vellon. I sent the cover to the director of the post office, but he declined correcting the mistake. Thus are all things managed here.
The Courier de l'Europe informs us, that the English Ministry are totally changed, and gives us a list of those who form the new one. I think it difficult to predict how this change may eventually operate with respect to us. I hope we shall persevere vigorously in our military operations, and thereby not only quiet the fears and suspicions of those who apprehend some secret understanding between us and this Ministry, but also regain the possession of those places, which might otherwise counterbalance other demands at a peace.
Great preparations are making here for a serious attack on Gibraltar. The Duc de Crillon will doubtless command it. His good fortune has been very great.