I dare say you smile at my prophecy, but you will observe it is a conditional one, and I am persuaded, like most other prophecies, will neither be believed nor understood, until verified by the event, which, at the same time, I am laboring like my good predecessors of old, (who prophecied grievous things,) to prevent taking place if possible; for it is my ultimate and early wish that America may forever be as unconnected with the politics or interests of Europe, as it is by nature situated distant from it, and that the friendly ties arising from a free, friendly, and independent commerce may be the only ties between us.
Adieu,
SILAS DEANE.
WILLIAM CARMICHAEL TO C. W. F. DUMAS.
Paris, June 13th, 1777.
Sir,
We are still without any news from America, except what we get by the way of England. The campaign was not opened the end of April, Howe being scarce of provisions, and without forage. I have seen a letter from an English officer in the service, dated the 25th of that month, and have been much pleased with the sight of it; a horrid pleasure, which derives its source from the prospect of human misery. The flux raged much in the army of the Philistines, as the saints of New England style it, owing to their food, salted meat, and no vegetables. I believe a certain brig, from a place called Rotterdam, has fallen into the hands of the chosen people, for one of my countrymen crossed the Atlantic in a small vessel of about twenty tons, on purpose to take her; at least he informs me that he had carried into Cherbourg a brig laden with about two hundred hogsheads of Geneva, some pitch, oil, &c. from Rotterdam; which said articles will, before this reaches you, be metamorphised into louis d'ors of France.
I have crossed the Chesapeake in this very ferry boat, in which my bold countryman crossed the Atlantic. I had been told by a man high in office in England, that resistance was a chimera in us, since their armed vessels would swarm so much in our rivers, as even to intercept the ferry-boats. His assertions are verified vice versa; our ferry-boats ruin their commerce. You smile, and think me amusing you. Be assured that is not the case. This very little boat took on her passage another brig of two hundred tons from Alicant, and sent her into America; she also took four or five vessels in the Channel, chiefly smugglers, and plundered them of their cash, and the Captain being a good natured fellow let them go, as he did a transport, which he took in sight of a man-of-war, and was obliged to give her up, bringing off, however, with him his people. He has promised for the future to burn those he cannot send in, and I believe will be as good as his word. This is the way the English serve not only ours, but the French vessels, which they take on our coast. The Captain tells me, he was told this last circumstance by several French Captains, whom he saw prisoners, (himself a prisoner) at New York. The eyes of this Court will be opened, it is to be hoped, before it is too late, a war being inevitable, in my opinion, to force an accommodation. They will unite with us on our own terms, and discerning from the past how little effective assistance we have to hope from France for the future, will make a war with this nation one article of the Federal Union. Whichever strikes first will probably succeed. Our valuable commerce is more hurt on the French coast than on our own. We have lost above £60,000 sterling, from South Carolina only, all which was coming to be laid out for French manufactures. It is a fact at present, that the manufacturers of this country cannot execute so fast as they receive orders.
The English papers published by the authority of General Howe, at New York, tell with triumph, that one of their cruisers has sunk a twenty gun French ship at some distance from the Delaware, and every soul perished. We have some fears that this is the Amphitrite. Another ship was taken, French property, a few leagues from the harbor of St Pierre, which she had just quitted. If they dare do this in their present critical situation, what will they not dare if successful, or at peace and united with us?