The King of Prussia seems to be a cool calculator, prepared to profit by the general distress. Denmark is influenced by Russia, and Sweden by France. Great Britain also still retains some influence in Denmark. The Court of Vienna will be adverse to us, as long as the Empress Queen exists. How the Emperor is inclined, I do not know. Sardinia and Portugal are friendly and attached to England. The Dutch are divided into parties, neither of which is strong enough to give firmness and decision to the conduct of the Republic. The Stadtholder and his party find means to thwart and retard all the vigorous resolves, which the French and republican party engage the state to enter into, to support their honor and dignity. The hopes entertained in Great Britain of the influence of the former party, and the proneness of the King and his Ministers to violent measures, induced the late extraordinary conduct of that Court, with respect to the Dutch. They will submit to this and more, rather than go to war. If the Empress of Russia is determined to support her late declaration, and to coincide effectually with the powers whom she has invited to accede to it, Great Britain must, however, recede from her present conduct, or offend highly the neutral powers.
The negotiation between Russia and Holland proceeds slowly. The Court party in England has gained once more its superiority in Parliament; a feigned sickness of the speaker, Sir Fletcher Norton, gave the Minister time to rally his forces, since which opposition grows more feeble every day. That of Ireland, for want of system and union among its members, and by the promises of places and honors, is a little staggered. There is however a fermentation in both nations, which the continuance of the war and its consequent distresses will probably increase, if not bring to maturity. The distresses of our army last winter, the depreciation of our paper money, the exaggerated accounts of our divisions, and our apparent inactivity, have had a bad effect in Europe, which I hope the firmness and unanimity of Congress, added to the exertions of our ally, and those of this Court, will entirely efface.
The expedition, which sailed from Cadiz the 28th ultimo, consisting of twelve sail of the line, besides frigates, and eleven thousand five hundred men, proceeds to the Windward Islands, and there joins M. de Guichen, or goes against Jamaica or the Floridas, as circumstances may render it proper. Another expedition from France, follows M. Ternay's, I believe, to reinforce M. de Guichen, who, if I am not deceived, will join the Spaniards to the leeward in the hurricane months, and if necessary and practicable, send eight or ten ships to our coasts in the beginning of the autumn. This depends, however, much on the events of war. Spain in concurrence with France, will have between forty and fifty sail of the line, to oppose the grand English fleet, which I am informed will sail the last of this month or the beginning of next. The allied fleet is not in such readiness. Strong interest is making for the Count d'Estaing to command in chief, and I think he will be nominated.
A very little time will determine the fate of the bills drawn on Mr Jay. I received the first last week, in a letter from M. Nesbitt of L'Orient who very prudently did not negotiate it, until he consulted me on the subject. I am also informed, that bills on Mr Laurens are in circulation, and we have not yet heard of his arrival. I have written to Dr Franklin, and Messrs Adams and Dana, and if I have not heard from them oftener, I impute it to the miscarriage of their letters, which was the case of those of Dr Franklin, the first two months after my arrival at Madrid. Mr Jay will transmit an account of the revenues, and expenses of Spain, with which I have furnished him, which will show, that Congress cannot depend on such pecuniary assistance from this nation as they expected.
Mr Jay's situation has been particularly disagreeable; the sum allotted by Congress, by no means accords with his necessary expenses, even if he received his salary as it became due. I do not complain, although I have been obliged since my departure from America to expend more than six hundred and fifty pounds sterling, and have not as yet received more than two hundred pounds of my salary. Almost everything that passes, even in Congress, is known here, either by intercepted letters, or otherwise. You, Gentlemen, will conceive, how delicate Mr Jay's situation must be, if he delivers faithfully his sentiments of men and measures. I must repeat again, however, that there is a great appearance of candor and good faith. The Count de Florida Blanca, and M. Galvez speak with much apparent civility and frankness, and seem desirous of doing all that is possible to succor us consistent with the actual situation of their finances, the former particularly. I have sent a copy of this via Bilboa, and another from Cadiz. I have not yet had the pleasure of receiving one letter from any one member of Congress.
I have the honor to be, &c.
WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.
FOOTNOTES:
[6] See this Memorial in John Jay's Correspondence, Vol. VII. p. 268.