The loan for nine millions of dollars, mentioned in my former letters, is not yet completed, in part owing to the obstacles thrown in its way by M. Necker. The resentment of the Spanish Ministry, which this interference excited, has not yet subsided, and I am afraid the prejudices thereby excited will not soon be eradicated, although common interest may stifle them apparently at present. The mode of raising money in the manner heretofore mentioned may become the only plan practicable, should others now in contemplation not succeed, and Spain may be obliged to have recourse to paper, from inability to procure money by other methods.
The Court of Great Britain is well informed of their situation through Mr Cumberland, their emissary here, who spends a great deal of money. Influenced by which, and other advices, the King has, in his speech to Parliament, openly avowed his determination to prosecute the war with vigor, and he will be supported by a great majority in both houses. From the best information I have been able to collect, I am sorry to tell you, that the nation will be able to borrow the sum demanded for the expenditures of 1781, which with the usual vote of credit at the end of the session, will amount to sixteen millions sterling at least. The scheme of the Ministry to effect this is not yet public, but I am told, it will be on similar conditions to those of the present year. Ninetytwo thousand men are voted for the marine, and I have reason to think a considerable reinforcement will be sent early to the southward, and that agreeably to a proposition of Sir J. Amherst, the enemy means to occupy and fortify strongly a port near the month of Chesapeake Bay, from which with a strong garrison and a naval force, they hope to interrupt the navigation of the Bay, and by frequent incursions prevent the States of Maryland and Virginia from sending supplies of men, &c. &c. to the Carolinas. Among the troops mentioned to be embarked there, are three regiments of light dragoons. Your servants nearer Great Britain will give you more accurate information.
I am persuaded that our ally will take early measures for defeating these designs. This latter information is derived indirectly from conversations with men in a situation to be well informed. The disposition of this Court depends much on its hopes of obtaining the objects for which it commenced the war, and I should not merit the confidence reposed in me if I did not tell you plainly, that I believe that the exclusive possession of the Gulf of Mexico is the favorite object, and that if they cannot obtain it by a connexion with the United States, they will endeavor to procure it, by a general, if not by a separate peace, to which the King's good faith is, perhaps, at present the greatest obstacle. The Congress knows best the situation of their affairs, and I hope it may be such as to enable them to preserve the rights of all the States.
As I have frequent occasions of seeing the foreign Ministers here, and their Secretaries, I am too often obliged to remark their partiality for Great Britain, and jealousy of the house of Bourbon, particularly those of Russia, Vienna, Sardinia, Portugal, and Holland. Some of these, in my opinion, are the best spies England employs here. Jealousy on the one hand, and on the other compassion and admiration, begin to take the place of envy and interest. The transition from these to friendship and support is not difficult, if their masters do not differ in sentiments from their servants. Our perseverance, vigor, and exertions occasion a hesitation with respect to the event of the war, which augments or diminishes in proportion to their ideas of the intentions of this Court, which leads me to think it probable, that if Spain would enter into positive engagements with the United States, the hopes of the enemy to divide the allies would be at an end; the neutral powers would think our independence certain, and would endeavor to terminate the war, while Great Britain is in such a situation as to be able to preserve her other possessions.
Should the situation of affairs in America be in a worse situation than I hope they are, and should the Congress judge it necessary for their establishment to make further advances and sacrifices, permit me to take the liberty of observing, that these offers should be accompanied with a proviso of this Court's avowing the independence of the States immediately, otherwise the offers should be considered as null, and no pretensions formed thereon in a treaty for a general peace. At the same time, it might suit the States to procure a sum in specie from the Spanish settlements in America, and to obtain certain advantages of preference in the admission of the produce of their fisheries into the ports of Spain. I think it my duty to write you fully and freely the sentiments which arise from the opportunity of information you have given me, and should be happy to give you such as would be more acceptable to you, and more conformable to my wishes.
Mr Jay has received and accepted your bills to the amount of fifteen thousand dollars, and I hope will be enabled to pay them; but this business has thwarted the other part of his mission here, in showing our necessities so plainly. For this Court seems to expect equivalents for services rendered, and the interest of money advanced to us is not its object. This leads me to repeat what I mentioned in a former letter, of the King's satisfaction for a resolution of Congress, permitting the exportation of flour to the Havana, and that every similar manifestation of amity will much contribute to counteract the intrigues of the enemy here. The Minister of the Indies lately assured me, that his Majesty had directed him to return thanks, through the Chevalier de la Luzerne, for the respect shown at the interment of M. Miralles.
Having mentioned this gentleman, I am induced to speak of his intended successor, M. Gardoqui, who has now been named near five months, yet is still here. This detention is one reason among many others, which makes me fear the Court has not taken a decisive part for the next year, although the last declarations of the Minister on this subject were clear and positive. I have purposely omitted speaking of the operations of the war in Europe, and other articles of intelligence, in order to have it in my power to give you the latest I have received. I hear from England, that Mr Laurens is closely confined, and treated as a prisoner of State. The Committee may be persuaded, that retaliation on some of the English prisoners of consequence, will be regarded in Europe as a proof of the confidence of Congress in the support of the people.
A copy of the proposed treaty with the States of Holland, was taken among the papers of Mr Laurens, and sent by the British Ministry to the Stadtholder, who endeavored to criminate the Pensionary of Amsterdam and those concerned with him, in consequence of this discovery. He is, however, supported by the Regency, and this step of the Stadtholder, not having the effect intended, Sir Joseph Yorke has presented a violent and menacing Memorial to the States, demanding the punishment of the Pensionary and his accomplices.[8] I am advised that this Memorial has irritated in place of intimidating, and that since four of the seven States have agreed to accede to the armed neutrality, the persons attacked by the British Court have no apprehensions, and, possibly, the capture of these papers may eventually be of great advantage to the United States, by precipitating the conduct of England, and obliging the States to take a part contrary to their dispositions, and, perhaps, to the interest of one or other nation. The situation of M. Dumas is rendered more critical by this circumstance, and it would be injustice to him not to mention, that he is indefatigable to contribute to our information by his correspondence, and by his frequent publications to represent our situation in the most favorable point of view.
Mr Jay will transmit Congress a full state of our affairs here, with all the papers necessary to elucidate it. I have seen but one letter from Congress since my residence in Spain, from which I conjecture Mr Jay has received but one. He informs me he has written Congress, that it has not been my fault, that all copies of letters for their inspection did not appear with my signature. In the month of May, I answered in writing the instructions he gave me at Cadiz, as I did viva voce at Aranjues in April, before he entered Madrid. I should not mention this circumstance to the Committee, if I did not know that copies of these instructions had been forwarded to Congress, and only abstracts of the most important part of my answer sent them; I will take the liberty, therefore, of sending by the first safe opportunity the whole of my answer, from no other motive than that of evincing my desire to comply in every point with the duties of the trust reposed in me.
I have the honor to be, &c.