In my conversations with the Minister, and the gentleman above mentioned, they seemed to think the work of peace to be in a fair way. I have, however, some reason to suppose, that neither their instructions to their Ambassador at Paris for this object, nor those for him to treat with Mr Jay, are yet forwarded, and there are grounds to conjecture that this Court would have retarded the negotiation as much as possible, had not the defeat of the Count de Grasse blasted their hopes of taking Jamaica. Even now they will be desirous of knowing the fate of the siege of Gibraltar, before they agree to any treaty, which does not put them in possession of that important fortress.
The neutral Ministers here seem to wish to intermeddle in the proposed pacification. There is a general jealousy among them of the house of Bourbon, and a particular animosity against this branch of it. This I have long remarked, and I have now more frequent occasions than heretofore. I am afraid the rumors of peace will slacken the preparations of the Dutch for war. The hopes of a speedy general pacification, and a sense of complaisance and apprehension of the Empress of Russia, may procrastinate the treaty between the United States and them. I write these conjectures with diffidence, as indeed I do all which depend on my own judgment.
I am busy at present in arranging the public accounts. The projected bank employs so much of M. Cabarrus's time, and that of his clerks, that it is possible I may be obliged to follow the Court to St Ildefonso, to which place the king removes the 14th instant, before I can obtain such a settlement of them, as may enable me to transmit the general account to Mr Jay, for his approbation. In the meantime, I draw, and shall still be obliged to draw, on Dr Franklin, to enable me to discharge the public bills accepted by Mr Jay. Exchange is every day more to our disadvantage. The depreciation of the royal billets is now at 31/4 to 31/2 per cent, and I make no doubt will be at 6 per cent in two months. The Court has been again obliged to apply to the Gromios for assistance, whose privileges, it appears from the establishment of the bank, it meant to deprive them of. This circumstance marks their distress for money, and as some say, the want of system in their conduct.
The Duc de Crillon has set out for the camp before Gibraltar; the operations, however, will not seriously commence before the month of August, if in all that month. The expectations of success are sanguine. I heard the Duke himself speak with great confidence on the subject. The combined fleet left Cadiz the 4th instant; it consists of thirtytwo sail of the line, and some frigates, and proceeds immediately to the British channel. I avail myself of a courier from the French Ambassador to forward copies of this letter to the ports of France. The Count de Montmorin continues to give the same proofs of attachment to the interests of the States, and of personal kindness to myself, that I have ever experienced since my arrival in Spain. I beg leave to remind you to send me a cypher, and to entreat your instructions and intelligence addressed directly to myself; otherwise I have few opportunities of manifesting my zeal for the public service, or of acquiring your personal esteem.
I have the honor to be, &c.
WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.
FOOTNOTES:
[13] The letter here referred to is missing. Mr Jay left Madrid for Paris about the 20th of May.
ROBERT R. LIVINGSTON TO WILLIAM CARMICHAEL.
Philadelphia, July 6th, 1782.