"Now, I mention this simply to show that the business risk in building or operating a railway is greater than it is in any other business. There is nothing guaranteed, and sometimes you are told what appliances you may use; you are told what you must not use; you are told whom you can hire, and you are told when you can discharge him, and it has been at least hinted as to what you should pay him—what his wages and condition of work shall be. So that the only privilege that was left for the railroads was to pay the bills. That they are always expected to do, and it would be a great disappointment if they were not able to.
"In the section of this country, the portion of this country east of Chicago, I do not know anywhere north of the Ohio River, where a railroad, built with the greatest care and economy, could pay one per cent. on its cost; that is, a new road, built between any of the large cities of the west to the large cities of the east, paying the present price of real estate and terminals and the cost of construction, the cost of eliminating great profits, the cost of the necessary expenditure of money to make life and limb safe.
"Take, for instance, a railroad from New York to Chicago. I had curiosity enough to inquire from the leading real estate man who was getting the additional property for the New York Central, their terminals, what it would cost from Thirty-eighth street to Harlem River, a narrow strip of blocks on the East Side, say ten blocks, from Thirty-eighth to Forty-eighth street, to be used as a terminal. He told me it ought to be secured for $200,000,000, but he would not like to take the contract. Now, follow that up through Albany and Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo and Erie and Cleveland and on to Chicago, and if you can get into Chicago and get out of New York with any reasonable cost I want to say that when your road was finished, at the present rate, it could not pay 1 per cent. on what it cost in money.
NO ROOM FOR MORE ROADS.
"Now, what chance is there for more roads between New York and Chicago, or between any Atlantic city and any large city in the west? During the ten years from 1898 to 1908 the railroad mileage in the United States increased about 24½ per cent., the passenger business increased 125 per cent., and the freight business increased 148 per cent. The additional burden was placed on the railways, with an increase of over 148 per cent. in the tons moved. What is it costing the Pennsylvania road to get into the City of New York? I do not know the exact figures, but I have seen it estimated from time to time at one hundred millions of dollars to secure passenger facilities in the City of New York. When I think of these things and see what you have here I think that we have reason to congratulate ourselves, and I think that we had a narrow escape from being compelled to do our business west of Commercial street in place of where we are today. There are no places that I know of today where there is any room or any use for any other large railway enterprise.
"The Milwaukee & St. Paul are coming to the Coast—and we are glad they are there. At different times, when people largely interested in that enterprise talked with me, I said, 'By all means build to the Coast; extend your road—if you do not, somebody who has more enterprise than you will take the business and will keep it on their own rails and you will not get a share of it.' But when that enterprise is finished, I do not know, north of the Platte River, where there is room for another railroad or occasion for one. There will be branches built, and they are necessary for the development of the country. You had expended, and there is being expended now, a very large sum during the last two years.
"The Northern Pacific and the Great Northern, within the State of Washington, have spent millions of dollars between Portland and Spokane. It ought not to frighten you; it will not wipe you out; you have your roots deep in the ground and they will stay there.
TACOMA IS WAKING.
"Now, I find in summing up the present population of the new country between Blaine and Vancouver—Portland is on the other side of the Columbia, although, fortunately, the state line does not limit our commerce or our right to trade with each other—there are over 700,000 people living on the line of the railway between Blaine and Vancouver. Portland claims 200,000, and I feel sure that she must be near that figure. Portland has grown rapidly, and I think possibly the young men have taken a sheet out of your book. There was a time when they were altogether too wealthy in Portland. Every man had business of his own to attend to and was so deeply engaged in it that he overlooked the business of the city. They did not take hold. You could come there if you were willing to bear all the expense and take what you could get. But Portland has had an awakening, and I believe that Portland, notwithstanding its remoteness from the sea, will have a good growth. It has a good country behind it and there is no reason why it should not have a good growth.
"Another city down here where we were beautifully entertained last night, Tacoma—I remember when we came out here they really did not need us and we did not want to force ourselves on them, and so we stayed right here. But I think, and I hope, that Tacoma is getting its eyes open and that it wants more railways. We don't ask much; we want the privilege of a place for foothold, a place to do our business at our own expense; and I think that we will probably succeed in getting it—I hope so.