"I had replied that the amount of influence that could be used in this sense would depend upon how reasonable were the Austrian demands and how strong the justification that Austria might have discovered for making her demands. The possible consequences of the present situation were terrible. If as many as four great powers of Europe—let us say, Austria, France, Russia, and Germany—were engaged in war, it seemed to me that it must involve the expenditure of so vast a sum of money, and such an interference with trade, that a war would be accompanied or followed by a complete collapse of European credit and industry. In these days, in great industrial states, this would mean a state of things worse than that of 1848, and, irrespective of who were victors in the war, many things might be completely swept away.
"Count Mensdorff did not demur to this statement of the possible consequences of the present situation, but he said that all would depend upon Russia.
"I made the remark that, in a time of difficulties such as this, it was just as true to say that it required two to keep the peace as it was to say ordinarily that it took two to make a quarrel. I hoped very much that, if there were difficulties, Austria and Russia would be able in the first instance to discuss them directly with each other.
"Count Mensdorff said that he hoped this would be possible, but he was under the impression that the attitude in Petrograd had not been very favorable recently."
On the same day, July 23, 1914, before the copy of the note had been presented to him, M. Bienvenu-Martin, Acting Minister for Foreign Affairs at Paris, notified the French Ambassadors at London, Berlin, St. Petersburg, and Rome, that it was reported by M. Dumaine, French Ambassador at Vienna, that the intention of Austria-Hungary was to proceed with the greatest severity against Serbia, while keeping eight army corps ready to start operations.
Nevertheless Baron Macchio, Austro-Hungarian Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs, had assured M. Dumaine that the tone and demands of the note were such as to allow us to count on a peaceful result.
"In view of the customary procedure of the Imperial Chancellery, I do not know what confidence ought to be placed in these assurances....
"The Serbian Minister [M. Vesnitch] holds that as M. Pashitch [Serbian Prime Minister] wishes to come to an understanding, he will accept those demands which relate to the punishment of the outrage and to the guaranties for control and police supervision, but that he will resist everything which might affect the sovereignty and dignity of his country.
"In diplomatic circles at Vienna the German Ambassador [Von Tschirschky] is in favor of violent measures, while at the same time he confesses that the Imperial Chancellery is perhaps not entirely in agreement with him on this point; the Russian Ambassador [Schebeko], trusting to assurances which have been given him, has left Vienna, and before his departure confided to M. Dumaine that his Government will not raise any objection to the punishment of the guilty and the dissolution of the revolutionary associations, but that they could not accept requirements which were humiliating to the national sentiment of Serbia."
On the same day, July 23, 1914, M. Allizé, French Minister at Munich, reported to M. Bienvenu-Martin that the Bavarian press were optimistic over a peaceful solution of the Serbian question, but that official circles were pessimistic.