SERBIA'S POSITION EXPLAINED
1. Constant police surveillance of the Serbian legation and menacing attitude of the public.
2. Sudden change early in July of Austro-Hungarian attitude to the Sarajevo incident. Press begins to represent it as a manifestation of Serbian intrigue which Austria must settle, and alone, with Serbia—eventually by war.
3. Assistance given by German Embassy to this press agitation.
4. Austrian financiers declare that "a settlement with Serbia" is the only way out of the general financial and economic crisis prevailing in Austria-Hungary since annexation of Bosnia. Gold secretly and gradually withdrawn from circulation.
5. Austrian Minister of War, Krobatin, and Chief of Staff, Hetzendorf, break leave of absence to return to Vienna, the latter having had a conversation at Carlsbad with German Chief of Staff, Count Moltke.
6. Reserves retained after stipulated period for maneuvers had expired and their numbers augmented.
7. Noncommittal answers of Count Tisza, Hungarian Prime Minister, to interpolations concerning Serbia in Hungarian Diet.
8. Refusal at Foreign Office in Vienna to discuss Sarajevo incident with foreign representatives, or if subject was mentioned, assurances that nothing would be done against Serbia to give uneasiness to the powers, in particular Russia. Foreign ambassadors, thus assured, quit Vienna on long leaves of absence for watering places. All this indicates that Austria-Hungary was contemplating sudden action, which, when a fait accompli, would likely be accepted by the powers in order to avoid a general war.
9. German Ambassador, Herr von Tschirschky, the only foreign representative informed of note to Serbia. He knew its minutest details, and there is reason to believe he helped draft it.