[282]. Reprinted from “La Question Arménienne à la Lumière des Documents,” par “Marcel Léart” (Paris, 1913). These statistics appear to be the most recent available, but it must be noted that they are fourteen years out of date, and that the figures must have risen considerably by April, 1915.
ANNEXE F: STATISTICAL ESTIMATE INCLUDED IN THE FIFTH BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN COMMITTEE FOR ARMENIAN AND SYRIAN RELIEF, DATED NEW YORK, 24th MAY, 1916.
1. The Extent of the Catastrophe.
The most extensive and most difficult work carried on by the American Committee for Armenian and Syrian Relief lies within the borders of the Turkish Empire. Here, in January, 1915, the Armenians numbered between sixteen hundred thousand and two million. Precise statistics do not exist. The estimates of the Turkish Government are usually considered to be too low and those of the Armenian Patriarchate sometimes too high, suggesting a tendency in the one case to minimize and in the other to exaggerate the size and consequent importance of the Armenian population.
Twelve months later, in January, 1916, from one-third to one-half of the Armenians in Turkey had fallen victims of deportation, disease, starvation or massacre.
As we note from a letter of Dr. Wilson’s, dated Erivan, Russian Caucasus, 4th February, 1916, there were then 182,800 Armenian refugees in the Caucasus and 12,100 in the districts of Turkey at that time conquered by the Russians. The subsequent extensions of the Russian conquests towards the west and south have brought to light numbers of Armenians who were in hiding. At the end of 1915, there were also 9,000 Armenian refugees in Salmas, Persia.
All these statistics are subject to fluctuation, due to the removal of the refugees from one region to another and also to the varying dates on which the enumerations or estimates were made. Bearing these critical considerations in mind we may tabulate the best figures as follows:—
| Aleppo, Damascus, Zor | 486,000 |
| Refugees in other parts of Turkey | 300,000 |
| Russian Caucasus | 182,800 |
| Armenians in districts of Turkey conquered by Russia | 12,100 |
| Armenians in Salmas, Persia | 9,000 |
| 989,900 |
If we may add to these numbers the undeported Armenian populations in Constantinople and Smyrna, perhaps 150,000 in all, we can perhaps estimate the total number of survivors at under 1,150,000. If we accept the estimate that the Armenian population of Turkey at the beginning of 1915 was between 1,600,000 and 2,000,000, we should compute the number of deaths at between 450,000 and 850,000. We shall probably be safe in saying that the Armenian dead number at least 600,000.