Whether the kingdom is really in a declining or increasing state, is, in like manner, a problem not to be solved, I think, by mere calculation. If there happens but a small mistake in the principles, what is built thereupon will be extremely wide of the truth. If one might take the liberty to guess by appearances, I should think we are greatly increased within these forty years, or since the accession of the present Royal Family. This conjecture I found upon the great facility, with which the government raises men, compared to the violent methods made use of in King William's and Queen Anne's time. Indeed I am sensible, that when the great ease, with which the government raises money, and the low interest it pays, have been urged in the House of Commons, as evident proofs of a flourishing trade, and plenty of cash, it has constantly been answered by a gentleman, who understands these matters better than any body else, that they are rather proofs of a want of trade, and that people do not know what to do with their money. In the same manner it may be answered, that the great facility, with which the government raises soldiers, is not owing so much to the great plenty of men, as to the want of employment: which it is possible may really be the case.
But where certainty may be had, it is trifling to talk of appearances and conjectures. For a century now past, the English way of philosophising (and all the rest of the world is come into it) is not to sit down in one's study, and form an hypothesis, and then strive to wrest all nature to it; but to look abroad into the world, and see how nature works; and then to build upon certain matter of fact. In compliance with this noble method, I have done all in my power: I have examined the registers of several neighbouring parishes, and send you the substance of three of the most perfect ones. Indeed, I could have added several others; but as they seem to have been now and then neglected, I did not care to trust to them. However, this I can safely deduce from them; viz. that what I have here sent will be a proper standard for these parts: and if other gentlemen would take the like pains (and it is next to nothing) in four or five parishes in each county, and in every great town, we might perceive, by one cast of the eye, whether our people are in an ebbing or flowing state. I have not set down the burials, as that would but have embarrassed the table; and the increase will appear very well without them. However, upon an average of all the parishes I have examined, the proportion of the burials to the baptisms is as 83 to 149,4.
| Lambourn. | Welford. | Shefford. | Total. | |||
| From | 1614 to 1623 | inclus. | 327 | 67 | 69 | 463 |
| 1624 to 1633 | — | 401 | 62 | 64 | 527 | |
| 1634 to 1643 | — | 391 | 119 | 86 | 596 | |
| 1662 to 1671 | — | 441 | 146 | 93 | 680 | |
| 1672 to 1681 | — | 380 | 132 | 108 | 620 | |
| 1682 to 1691 | — | 451 | 201 | 112 | 764 | |
| 1692 to 1701 | — | 366 | 134 | 88 | 588 | |
| 1702 to 1711 | — | 387 | 137 | 84 | 608 | |
| 1712 to 1721 | — | 422 | 171 | 97 | 690 | |
| 1722 to 1731 | — | 483 | 156 | 106 | 745 | |
| 1732 to 1741 | — | 578 | 205 | 128 | 911 | |
| 1742 to 1751 | — | 566 | 253 | 137 | 956 | |
| 1752 to 1756 | — | 349 | 120 | 64 | 533 |
This table stands in need of no remarks: it speaks loud enough of itself, that our people increase in a very rapid manner. All I shall take the liberty of observing from it is, that all the registers I have looked over seem to resent the wretched policy of King Charles II. who submitted himself and kingdom too much to a powerful neighbour: and that our civil war had no effect upon our numbers, in comparison to our foreign wars.
I trust, that the very ingenious author of the politico-arithmetical letters, I have all along had my eye upon, will take no offence, if I recommend an article or two advanced by him to be reconsidered; which, if pursued, might perhaps induce some small errors in government.
The first is, That all ways to increase our people would be for the public welfare, even the naturalizeing of foreigners: whereas, if I remember right, all political writers lay it down as a maxim, that numbers of people without employment are a burden and disease to the body politic; and where there is full employment, there the people multiply of course. So that we should not measure the happiness of the nation by the number of mouths, but by the number of hands. Nay, if we were to import a quantity of foreigners we must immediately re-export them, as we actually did in the case of the Palatines and Saltzburghers. Indeed, I cannot deny, but that if the new-comers were to bring new trades with them, they would be welcome: tho' I apprehend it is not an easy matter to find out many new manufactures. I can at present think of nothing but the cambrick business; and that, with a little encouragement, might be established in either Scotland or Ireland, without the importation of strangers.
The next thing I propose to be ruminated is the assertion, That our commerce at sea is one cause of the decay of our fencible men: which sounds in my ear like saying, that if we had less trade, we should have more people. And if this is the purport of it, I am afraid it is a paradox, literally so called.
That emigrations to our colonies do lessen our numbers in appearance, is beyond dispute: but then it is only in appearance: for if employment begets people, the filling our plantations must increase us beyond imagination, it having been made out, if I misremember not, that every man rightly occupied in America finds employment for three persons in Old England. But then care should be taken, that the planters were generally employed in raising rough materials; and that every thing imported there were manufactured by ourselves; because, if we settle colonies, and then supply them with East-India stuffs and foreign linens, it is neither better nor worse than being at a vast expence to maintain other people's poor.
I cannot conclude without begging leave to observe, that this gentleman's doctrine is, from beginning to end, to say the best of it, ill timed. We are contending with our hereditary enemy, the most powerful prince in the world, not for superiority, but for independence, pro aris et focis. And, at such a time as this, to be told, that we are but little better than half peopled, and the few we have dwindling away every day, is indeed very discourageing: whereas, on the contrary, I do not balance one moment to declare it, as my fixt persuasion, that we can spare 100,000 brisk young fellows, and still be the most populous flourishing nation in Europe.
I am,